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Interest Rates and the Spatial Polarization of Housing Markets

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  • Francisco Amaral
  • Martin Dohmen
  • Sebastian Kohl
  • Moritz Schularick

Abstract

Rising within-country differences in house values are a much-debated trend in the United States and internationally. Using new long-run regional data for 15 advanced economies, we show that standard explanations linking growing price dispersion to rent dispersion are contradicted by an important stylized fact: rent dispersion has increased far less than price dispersion. We propose a new explanation: a uniform decline in real risk-free interest rates can have heterogeneous spatial effects on house values. Falling real safe rates disproportionately push up prices in large agglomerations where initial rent-price ratios are low, leading to housing market polarization on the national level.

Suggested Citation

  • Francisco Amaral & Martin Dohmen & Sebastian Kohl & Moritz Schularick, 2024. "Interest Rates and the Spatial Polarization of Housing Markets," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 89-104, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aerins:v:6:y:2024:i:1:p:89-104
    DOI: 10.1257/aeri.20220367
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Zhandos Ybrayev & Yernur Orakbayev & Askar Utarbayev, 2024. "Yield Curves for Main Street: Housing and financial capital returns in a developing economy," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(1), pages 165-182, January.
    2. Paz-Pardo, Gonzalo & Castellanos, Juan & Hannon, Andrew, 2024. "The aggregate and distributional implications of credit shocks on housing and rental markets," Working Paper Series 2977, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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