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A model of system-wide stress simulation: market-based finance and the Covid-19 event

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  • di Iasio, Giovanni
  • Alogoskoufis, Spyridon
  • Kördel, Simon
  • Kryczka, Dominika
  • Nicoletti, Giulio
  • Vause, Nicholas

Abstract

We build a model to simulate how the euro area market-based financial system may function under stress. The core of the model is a set of representative agents reflecting key economic sectors, which interact in asset, funding, and derivatives markets and face solvency and liquidity constraints on their behaviour. We illustrate the model's behaviour in a two-layer approach. In Layer 1 the deterioration in the outlook for the corporate sector triggers portfolio reallocation by the model's agents. Layer 2 adds a rating downgrade shock where a fraction of investment grade corporate bonds is downgraded to high yield, which creates further rebalancing pressure and price movements. The model predicts (i) asset flows (buying and selling of marketable securities) across agents and (ii) balance sheet losses. It also provides quantitative evidence on equilibrium effects of the macroprudential regulation of nonbanks, which we illustrate by varying investment fund cash buffers. JEL Classification: G17, G21, G22, G23

Suggested Citation

  • di Iasio, Giovanni & Alogoskoufis, Spyridon & Kördel, Simon & Kryczka, Dominika & Nicoletti, Giulio & Vause, Nicholas, 2022. "A model of system-wide stress simulation: market-based finance and the Covid-19 event," Working Paper Series 2671, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20222671
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; market-based finance; stress testing; systemic risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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