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Fire‐Sale Spillovers in Debt Markets

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  • ANTONIO FALATO
  • ALI HORTAÇSU
  • DAN LI
  • CHAEHEE SHIN

Abstract

Fire sales induced by investor redemptions have powerful spillover effects among funds that hold the same assets, hurting peer funds' performance and flows, and leading to further asset sales with negative bond price impact. A one‐standard‐deviation increase in our fire‐sale spillover measure leads to a 45 (90) bp decrease in peer fund returns (flows) and a two percentage point increase in the likelihood of a large bond price drop. The results hold in a regression‐discontinuity design addressing identification concerns. Timing, heterogeneity, instrumental‐variable, and placebo tests further support the price‐impact mechanism. Model‐based counterfactual and stress‐test analyses quantify the financial stability implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Antonio Falato & Ali Hortaçsu & Dan Li & Chaehee Shin, 2021. "Fire‐Sale Spillovers in Debt Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(6), pages 3055-3102, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:76:y:2021:i:6:p:3055-3102
    DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13078
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    3. Fauvrelle, Thiago & Riedel, Max & Skrutkowski, Mathias, 2024. "Collateral pledgeability and asset manager portfolio choices during redemption waves," SAFE Working Paper Series 417, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    4. Hvidkjær, Søren & Massa, Massimo & Rzeźnik, Aleksandra, 2023. "Co-illiquidity management," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    5. Chen, Lili & Liu, Jianxiang, 2024. "Mutual fund illiquidity, selling pressure, and left-tail risk in stocks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    6. Thiago Fauvrelle & Mathias Skrutkowski, 2023. "Collateral pledgeability and asset manager portfolio choices during redemption waves," Working Papers 58, European Stability Mechanism, revised 12 Dec 2023.
    7. Nicoletti, Giulio & Rariga, Judit & Rodriguez d’Acri, Costanza, 2024. "Spare tyres with a hole: investment funds under stress and credit to firms," Working Paper Series 2917, European Central Bank.
    8. Grill, Michael & Molestina Vivar, Luis & Wedow, Michael, 2022. "Mutual fund suspensions during the COVID-19 market turmoil - asset liquidity, liquidity management tools and spillover effects," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    9. Breckenfelder, Johannes & Hoerova, Marie, 2023. "Do non-banks need access to the lender of last resort? Evidence from fund runs," CEPR Discussion Papers 18122, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Wu, Lan & Xu, Weiju & Huang, Dengshi & Li, Pan, 2022. "Does the volatility spillover effect matter in oil price volatility predictability? Evidence from high-frequency data," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 299-306.
    11. Longaric, Pablo Anaya & Cera, Katharina & Georgiadis, Georgios & Kaufmann, Christoph, 2025. "Investment funds and euro disaster risk," Working Paper Series 3029, European Central Bank.
    12. Wang, Hu, 2024. "Does carbon risk exposure make funds more vulnerable?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    13. Sui, Cong & Chen, Nan & Yang, Mo, 2023. "Not all market participants are alike when facing crisis: Evidence from the 2015 Chinese stock market turbulence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).

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