IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/chieco/v50y2018icp294-312.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

China and international housing price growth

Author

Listed:
  • Chang, Yuk Ying
  • Anderson, Hamish
  • Shi, Song

Abstract

We document Chinese effects on international residential property price growth. We show that faster growth of the housing prices is associated with larger declines in recent past growth of China's GDP, larger increases in China's savings rate, or stronger rise in China's risks. These results are consistent with the notion of Chinese investing in overseas property markets when faced with less promising investment opportunities at home and when they have the means to invest offshore. These effects are stronger for countries where English is the primary spoken language, with better tertiary education quality, and that exhibit lower correlations between local property market price growth and China's interest rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Chang, Yuk Ying & Anderson, Hamish & Shi, Song, 2018. "China and international housing price growth," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 294-312.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:50:y:2018:i:c:p:294-312
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2018.04.013
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1043951X18300543
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.chieco.2018.04.013?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zoran Ivković & Scott Weisbenner, 2005. "Local Does as Local Is: Information Content of the Geography of Individual Investors' Common Stock Investments," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(1), pages 267-306, February.
    2. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "Inflows of Capital to Developing Countries in the 1990s," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 123-139, Spring.
    3. Guonan Ma, 2015. "A compelling case for Chinese monetary easing," Policy Contributions 879, Bruegel.
    4. Chuhan, Punam & Claessens, Stijn & Mamingi, Nlandu, 1998. "Equity and bond flows to Latin America and Asia: the role of global and country factors," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 439-463, April.
    5. Qiulin Ke & Michael White, 2015. "Retail rent dynamics in two Chinese cities," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 324-340, December.
    6. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2016. "Understanding Booms and Busts in Housing Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(4), pages 1088-1147.
    7. Yu-Chin Chen & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2010. "Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(3), pages 1145-1194.
    8. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2011. "The Effects of Quantitative Easing on Interest Rates: Channels and Implications for Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 42(2 (Fall)), pages 215-287.
    9. Liu, Laura Xiaolei & Shu, Haibing & Wei, K.C. John, 2017. "The impacts of political uncertainty on asset prices: Evidence from the Bo scandal in China," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(2), pages 286-310.
    10. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
    11. La Porta, Rafael & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1997. "Legal Determinants of External Finance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 1131-1150, July.
    12. Schmeling, Maik, 2009. "Investor sentiment and stock returns: Some international evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 394-408, June.
    13. George A. Akerlof, 2009. "How Human Psychology Drives the Economy and Why It Matters," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1175-1175.
    14. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2012. "Capital flows, push versus pull factors and the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 341-356.
    15. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi & Francesco Trebbi, 2015. "Foreclosures, House Prices, and the Real Economy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(6), pages 2587-2634, December.
    16. Khandani, Amir E. & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C., 2013. "Systemic risk and the refinancing ratchet effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 29-45.
    17. John Cotter & Stuart Gabriel & Richard Roll, 2015. "Can Housing Risk Be Diversified? A Cautionary Tale from the Housing Boom and Bust," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(3), pages 913-936.
    18. Wu, Jing & Gyourko, Joseph & Deng, Yongheng, 2012. "Evaluating conditions in major Chinese housing markets," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 531-543.
    19. Huberman, Gur, 2001. "Familiarity Breeds Investment," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(3), pages 659-680.
    20. Ding Ding & Xiaoyu Huang & Tao Jin & Waikei Raphael Lam, 2017. "The Residential Real Estate Market in China: Assessment and Policy Implications," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 18(2), pages 411-442, November.
    21. Jean-Pierre Laffargue & Eden S. H. Yu, 2015. "The Chinese Savings Puzzles," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01450935, HAL.
    22. Aizenman, Joshua & Jinjarak, Yothin, 2009. "Current account patterns and national real estate markets," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 75-89, September.
    23. George Kapetanios & Haroon Mumtaz & Ibrahim Stevens & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2012. "Assessing the Economy‐wide Effects of Quantitative Easing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages 316-347, November.
    24. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    25. Adrienne Mack & Enrique Martínez García, 2011. "A cross-country quarterly database of real house prices: a methodological note," Globalization Institute Working Papers 99, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    26. Nelson, Phillip, 1970. "Information and Consumer Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(2), pages 311-329, March-Apr.
    27. Case, Karl E & Shiller, Robert J, 1989. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 125-137, March.
    28. Jane Dokko & Brian M. Doyle & Michael T. Kiley & Jinill Kim & Shane Sherlund & Jae Sim & Skander Van Den Heuvel, 2011. "Monetary policy and the global housing bubble [Assessing dynamic efficiency: theory and evidence]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 26(66), pages 237-287.
    29. Yi Xu & Zhihong Shi & Bas Leeuwen & Yuping Ni & Zipeng Zhang & Ye Ma, 2017. "Chinese National Income, ca. 1661–1933," Australian Economic History Review, Economic History Society of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 57(3), pages 368-393, November.
    30. William Miles, 2009. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty and Housing Investment," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 173-182, February.
    31. Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko & Raven E. Saks, 2006. "Urban growth and housing supply," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(1), pages 71-89, January.
    32. William C. Wheaton & Gleb Nechayev, 2008. "The 1998 ?2005 Housing "Bubble" and the Current "Correction": What’s Different This Time?," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 30(1), pages 1-26.
    33. Massimo Massa & Andrei Simonov, 2006. "Hedging, Familiarity and Portfolio Choice," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(2), pages 633-685.
    34. Du, Zaichao & Zhang, Lin, 2015. "Home-purchase restriction, property tax and housing price in China: A counterfactual analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 188(2), pages 558-568.
    35. Rose N. Lai & Robert A. Van Order, 2010. "Momentum and House Price Growth in the United States: Anatomy of a Bubble," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 38(4), pages 753-773, Winter.
    36. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    37. Christian Hott & Pierre Monnin, 2008. "Fundamental Real Estate Prices: An Empirical Estimation with International Data," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 36(4), pages 427-450, May.
    38. Denise DiPasquale & William C. Wheaton, 1992. "The Markets for Real Estate Assets and Space: A Conceptual Framework," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 20(2), pages 181-198, June.
    39. Joshua D. Coval & Tobias J. Moskowitz, 1999. "Home Bias at Home: Local Equity Preference in Domestic Portfolios," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(6), pages 2045-2073, December.
    40. Carlos Rodríguez & Ricardo Bustillo, 2010. "Modelling Foreign Real Estate Investment: The Spanish Case," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 354-367, October.
    41. David N. Figlio & Maurice E. Lucas, 2004. "What's in a Grade? School Report Cards and the Housing Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(3), pages 591-604, June.
    42. Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo, 1996. "The new wave of private capital inflows: Push or pull?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 389-418, March.
    43. Albert Saiz, 2003. "Room in the Kitchen for the Melting Pot: Immigration and Rental Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 502-521, August.
    44. Mark Grinblatt & Matti Keloharju, 2001. "How Distance, Language, and Culture Influence Stockholdings and Trades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 1053-1073, June.
    45. Richard Meyer & Kenneth Wieand, 1996. "Risk and Return to Housing, Tenure Choice and the Value of Housing in an Asset Pricing Context," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 24(1), pages 113-131, March.
    46. Shiller Robert J., 2006. "Long-Term Perspectives on the Current Boom in Home Prices," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 3(4), pages 1-11, March.
    47. Jack Favilukis & David Kohn & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2012. "International Capital Flows and House Prices: Theory and Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: Housing and the Financial Crisis, pages 235-299, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    48. Wilson, Ross, 2016. "Does Governance Cause Growth? Evidence from China," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 138-151.
    49. Campbell, Sean D. & Davis, Morris A. & Gallin, Joshua & Martin, Robert F., 2009. "What moves housing markets: A variance decomposition of the rent-price ratio," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 90-102, September.
    50. Li, Yuan & Gao, Haoyu & Yang, Mingmin & Guan, Wanqiu & Ma, Haixin & Qian, Weining & Cao, Zhigang & Yang, Xiaoguang, 2015. "What are Chinese talking about in hot weibos?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 419(C), pages 546-557.
    51. K. Stephen Haggard & Brian R. Walkup & Yaoyi Xi, 2015. "Short-Term Performance of U.S.-Bound Chinese IPOs," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 121-141, January.
    52. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2011. "The Effects of Quantitative Easing on Interest Rates: Channels and Implications for Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(2 (Fall)), pages 215-287.
    53. repec:cuf:journl:y:2017:v:18:i:1:dinghuang is not listed on IDEAS
    54. Rui Yao, 2005. "Optimal Consumption and Portfolio Choices with Risky Housing and Borrowing Constraints," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(1), pages 197-239.
    55. Frederick Solt, 2016. "The Standardized World Income Inequality Database," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 97(5), pages 1267-1281, November.
    56. Michael Lemmon & Evgenia Portniaguina, 2006. "Consumer Confidence and Asset Prices: Some Empirical Evidence," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(4), pages 1499-1529.
    57. Gunter, Frank R., 2017. "Corruption, costs, and family: Chinese capital flight, 1984–2014," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 105-117.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jerbashian, Vahagn, 2021. "Trade in information technologies and changes in the demand for occupations," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    2. Yii, Kwang-Jing & Tan, Chai-Thing & Ho, Wing-Ken & Kwan, Xiao-Hui & Nerissa, Feng-Ting Shim & Tan, Yan-Yi & Wong, Kar-Horn, 2022. "Land availability and housing price in China: Empirical evidence from nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL)," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bergant, Katharina & Fidora, Michael & Schmitz, Martin, 2018. "International capital flows at the security level – evidence from the ECB’s asset purchase programme," ECMI Papers 13926, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    2. Guiso, Luigi & Sodini, Paolo, 2013. "Household Finance: An Emerging Field," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1397-1532, Elsevier.
    3. Carlos Garriga & Aaron Hedlund, 2019. "Crises in the Housing Market: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Lessons," Working Papers 2019-33, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    4. Benhima, Kenza & Cordonier, Rachel, 2022. "News, sentiment and capital flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    5. Roger Stover & Boyle, Glenn, 2008. "Staying Close to Home: Foreign Bank Participation in Syndicated Loans," Working Paper Series 4019, Victoria University of Wellington, The New Zealand Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation.
    6. Phelim Boyle & Lorenzo Garlappi & Raman Uppal & Tan Wang, 2012. "Keynes Meets Markowitz: The Trade-Off Between Familiarity and Diversification," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(2), pages 253-272, February.
    7. John Y. Campbell, 2006. "Household Finance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1553-1604, August.
    8. repec:vuw:vuwscr:19120 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Lee, Seohyun, 2017. "Three essays on uncertainty: real and financial effects of uncertainty shocks," MPRA Paper 83617, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Stover, Roger & Boyle, Glenn, 2008. "Staying Close to Home: Foreign Bank Participation in Syndicated Loans," Working Paper Series 19120, Victoria University of Wellington, The New Zealand Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation.
    11. Aabo, Tom & Lee, Suin & Pantzalis, Christos & Park, Jung Chul, 2020. "Know thy neighbor: Political uncertainty and the informational advantage of local institutional investors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    12. Bo Becker & Zoran Ivković & Scott Weisbenner, 2011. "Local Dividend Clienteles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(2), pages 655-683, April.
    13. Ayala, Diana & Nedeljkovic, Milan & Saborowski, Christian, 2017. "What slice of the pie? The corporate bond market boom in emerging economies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 16-35.
    14. Green, T. Clifton & Jame, Russell, 2013. "Company name fluency, investor recognition, and firm value," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(3), pages 813-834.
    15. Anil Mishra, 2011. "Australia’s equity home bias and real exchange rate volatility," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 223-244, August.
    16. Stelios Bekiros & Amanda Dahlström & Gazi Salah Uddin & Oskar Ege & Ranadeva Jayasekera, 2020. "A tale of two shocks: The dynamics of international real estate markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 3-27, January.
    17. Bruno Solnik & Luo Zuo, 2012. "A Global Equilibrium Asset Pricing Model with Home Preference," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(2), pages 273-292, February.
    18. Mercado, Rogelio V., 2019. "Capital flow transitions: Domestic factors and episodes of gross capital inflows," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 251-264.
    19. Anusha Chari & Karlye Dilts Stedman & Christian Lundblad, 2017. "Taper Tantrums: QE, its Aftermath and Emerging Market Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 23474, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Ayelen Banegas & Ruth A. Judson & Charles Sims & Viktors Stebunovs, 2015. "International Dollar Flows," International Finance Discussion Papers 1144, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    21. Carlos Alba & Gabriel Cuadra & Juan R. Hernandez & Raul Ibarra, 2024. "Capital flows to emerging economies and global risk aversion during the COVID‐19 pandemic," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 2804-2836, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International housing prices; China; Overseas opportunities; Investible funds; Risk; English; Education;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • R20 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - General
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:50:y:2018:i:c:p:294-312. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/chieco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.