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Bank to sovereign risk spillovers across borders: evidence from the ECB’s Comprehensive Assessment

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  • Breckenfelder, Johannes
  • Schwaab, Bernd

Abstract

We study spillovers from bank to sovereign risk in the euro area using difference specifications around the European Central Bank’s release of stress test results for 130 significant banks on October 26, 2014. We document that following this information release bank equity prices in stressed countries declined. Surprisingly, bank risk in stressed countries was not absorbed by their sovereigns but spilled over to non-stressed euro area sovereigns. As a result, in non-stressed countries, the co-movement between sovereign and bank risk increased. This suggests that market participants perceived that bank risk is shared within the euro area. JEL Classification: C68, F34

Suggested Citation

  • Breckenfelder, Johannes & Schwaab, Bernd, 2018. "Bank to sovereign risk spillovers across borders: evidence from the ECB’s Comprehensive Assessment," Working Paper Series 2193, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20182193
    Note: 1125999
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    Cited by:

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    3. Christian Gross & Pierre L. Siklos, 2020. "Analyzing credit risk transmission to the nonfinancial sector in Europe: A network approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(1), pages 61-81, January.
    4. Böhm, Hannes & Eichler, Stefan, 2020. "Avoiding the fall into the loop: Isolating the transmission of bank-to-sovereign distress in the Euro Area," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    5. Bajaj, Vimmy & Kumar, Pawan & Singh, Vipul Kumar, 2022. "Linkage dynamics of sovereign credit risk and financial markets: A bibliometric analysis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    6. Cifarelli, Giulio & Paladino, Giovanna, 2020. "A non-linear analysis of the sovereign bank nexus in the EU," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 21(C).
    7. Brůha, Jan & Kočenda, Evžen, 2018. "Financial stability in Europe: Banking and sovereign risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 305-321.
    8. Capasso, Salvatore & D'Uva, Marcella & Fiorelli, Cristiana & Napolitano, Oreste, 2023. "Cross-border Italian sovereign risk transmission in EMU countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    9. Bales, Stephan, 2022. "Sovereign and bank dependence in the eurozone: A multi-scale approach using wavelet-network analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    10. Andrieș, Alin Marius & Nistor, Simona & Ongena, Steven & Sprincean, Nicu, 2020. "On Becoming an O-SII (“Other Systemically Important Institution”)," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    11. Luigi Marattin & Simone Meraglia & Raoul Minetti, 2022. "Sovereign bail‐outs and fiscal rules in a banking union," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 124(4), pages 1024-1055, October.
    12. Capasso Salvatore & D’Uva Marcella, & Fiorelli Cristiana & Napolitano Oreste, 2022. "Assessing the Impact of Country-Specific Sovereign Risk on Financial and Banking System in EMU: the Role of Italy," CSEF Working Papers 654, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    13. Pliszka, Kamil, 2021. "System-wide and banks' internal stress tests: Regulatory requirements and literature review," Discussion Papers 19/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    14. Böhm, Hannes & Eichler, Stefan, 2018. "Avoiding the fall into the loop: Isolating the transmission of bank-to-sovereign distress in the euro area and its drivers," IWH Discussion Papers 19/2018, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    15. Janbaz, M. & Hassan, M.K. & Floreani, J. & Dreassi, A., 2024. "Liquidity pressure and the sovereign-bank diabolic loop," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 1039-1057.
    16. Apostolakis, George N. & Floros, Christos & Giannellis, Nikolaos, 2022. "On bank return and volatility spillovers: Identifying transmitters and receivers during crisis periods," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 156-176.
    17. Patrick Augustin & Hamid Boustanifar & Johannes Breckenfelder & Jan Schnitzler, 2018. "Sovereign to Corporate Risk Spillovers," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(5), pages 857-891, August.
    18. Böhm, Hannes & Eichler, Stefan, 2019. "Avoiding the Fall into the Loop: Isolating the Transmission of Bank-to-Sovereign Distress in the Euro Area and its Drivers," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203515, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    19. Nguyen, Thach Vu Hong & Ahmed, Shamim & Chevapatrakul, Thanaset & Onali, Enrico, 2020. "Do stress tests affect bank liquidity creation?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    20. Nadal De Simone, Francisco, 2021. "Measuring the deadly embrace: Systemic and sovereign risks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    21. Bratis, Theodoros & Laopodis, Nikiforos T. & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2020. "Systemic risk and financial stability dynamics during the Eurozone debt crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    bank-sovereign nexus; Comprehensive Assessment; European Central Bank; risk spillovers; stress test;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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