Modeling credit contagion via the updating of fragile beliefs
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
Other versions of this item:
- Luca Benzoni & Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein & Jean Helwege, 2015. "Modeling Credit Contagion via the Updating of Fragile Beliefs," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(7), pages 1960-2008.
References listed on IDEAS
- Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J Sargent, 2014.
"Beliefs, Doubts and Learning: Valuing Macroeconomic Risk,"
World Scientific Book Chapters, in: UNCERTAINTY WITHIN ECONOMIC MODELS, chapter 10, pages 331-377,
World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
- Lars Peter Hansen, 2007. "Beliefs, Doubts and Learning: Valuing Macroeconomic Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 1-30, May.
- Boyarchenko, Nina, 2012. "Ambiguity shifts and the 2007–2008 financial crisis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(5), pages 493-507.
- Sebastian Edwards, 1983. "LDC's Foreign Borrowing and Default Risk: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 1172, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert A. Jarrow & David Lando & Fan Yu, 2008.
"Default Risk And Diversification: Theory And Empirical Implications,"
World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 19, pages 455-480,
World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
- Robert A. Jarrow & David Lando & Fan Yu, 2005. "Default Risk And Diversification: Theory And Empirical Implications," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 1-26, January.
- Harvey,Andrew C., 1991.
"Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter,"
Cambridge Books,
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521405737, January.
- Harvey,Andrew C., 1990. "Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521321969, January.
- Aruoba, S. BoraÄŸan & Diebold, Francis X. & Scotti, Chiara, 2009.
"Real-Time Measurement of Business Conditions,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 417-427.
- Chiara Scotti & S.Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold & University of Maryland, 2006. "Real-Time Measurement of Business Conditions," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 387, Society for Computational Economics.
- S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold & Chiara Scotti, 2008. "Real-Time Measurement of Business Conditions," NBER Working Papers 14349, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold & Chiara Scotti, 2007. "Real-Time Measurement of Business Conditions," PIER Working Paper Archive 07-028, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
- S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold & Chiara Scotti, 2008. "Real-time measurement of business conditions," Working Papers 08-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold & Chiara Scotti, 2007. "Real-time measurement of business conditions," International Finance Discussion Papers 901, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Sanjiv R. Das & Darrell Duffie & Nikunj Kapadia & Leandro Saita, 2007.
"Common Failings: How Corporate Defaults Are Correlated,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(1), pages 93-117, February.
- Sanjiv Das & Darrell Duffie & Nikunj Kapadia & Leandro Saita, 2006. "Common Failings: How Corporate Defaults are Correlated," NBER Working Papers 11961, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hui Chen, 2010.
"Macroeconomic Conditions and the Puzzles of Credit Spreads and Capital Structure,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(6), pages 2171-2212, December.
- Hui Chen, 2010. "Macroeconomic Conditions and the Puzzles of Credit Spreads and Capital Structure," NBER Working Papers 16151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- David Feldman, 1989. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates in a Partially Observable Economy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(3), pages 789-812, July.
- Laura E. Kodres & Matthew Pritsker, 2002. "A Rational Expectations Model of Financial Contagion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 769-799, April.
- Joost Driessen, 2005. "Is Default Event Risk Priced in Corporate Bonds?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(1), pages 165-195.
- Kee-Hong Bae & G. Andrew Karolyi & René M. Stulz, 2003.
"A New Approach to Measuring Financial Contagion,"
The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(3), pages 717-763, July.
- Kee-Hong Bae & G. Andrew Karolyi & Rene M. Stulz, 2000. "A New Approach to Measuring Financial Contagion," NBER Working Papers 7913, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kee-Hong Bae & G. Andrew Karolyi & Rene M. Stulz, 2001. "A new approach to measuring financial contagion," Proceedings 743, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Jens Hilscher & Yves Nosbusch, 2010.
"Determinants of Sovereign Risk: Macroeconomic Fundamentals and the Pricing of Sovereign Debt,"
Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 14(2), pages 235-262.
- Jens Hilscher & Yves Nosbusch, 2007. "Determinants of Sovereign Risk: Macroeconomic Fundamentals and the Pricing of Sovereign Debt," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 114, Money Macro and Finance Research Group, revised 24 Apr 2007.
- Antje Berndt & Rohan Douglas & Darrell Duffie & Mark Ferguson, "undated".
"Measuring Default Risk Premia from Default Swap Rates and EDFs,"
GSIA Working Papers
2006-E31, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
- Antje Berndt & Rohan Douglas & Darrell Duffie & Mark Ferguson & David Schranz, 2005. "Measuring default risk premia from default swap rates and EDFs," BIS Working Papers 173, Bank for International Settlements.
- Jorion, Philippe & Zhang, Gaiyan, 2007. "Good and bad credit contagion: Evidence from credit default swaps," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(3), pages 860-883, June.
- Alexander David, 2008. "Inflation Uncertainty, Asset Valuations, and the Credit Spreads Puzzle," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(6), pages 2487-2534, November.
- Philippe Jorion & Gaiyan Zhang, 2009. "Credit Contagion from Counterparty Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(5), pages 2053-2087, October.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989.
"New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators,"
NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409,
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 1989. "New Indexes Of Coincident And Leading Economic Indicators," Papers 178d, Harvard - J.F. Kennedy School of Government.
- King, Mervyn A & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1990.
"Transmission of Volatility between Stock Markets,"
The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 5-33.
- Mervyn A. King & Sushil Wadhwani, 1989. "Transmission of Volatility Between Stock Markets," NBER Working Papers 2910, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Laura Jaramillo, 2010. "Determinants of Investment Grade Status in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 2010/117, International Monetary Fund.
- Darrell Duffie & Lasse Heje Pedersen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2003. "Modeling Sovereign Yield Spreads: A Case Study of Russian Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 119-159, February.
- Lars Peter Hansen, 2007. "Beliefs, Doubts and Learning: Valuing Economic Risk," NBER Working Papers 12948, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jun Pan & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2008. "Default and Recovery Implicit in the Term Structure of Sovereign CDS Spreads," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(5), pages 2345-2384, October.
- Giesecke, Kay, 2004. "Correlated default with incomplete information," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1521-1545, July.
- Harjoat S. Bhamra & Lars-Alexander Kuehn & Ilya A. Strebulaev, 2010. "The Aggregate Dynamics of Capital Structure and Macroeconomic Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(12), pages 4187-4241, December.
- Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
- Itamar Drechsler & Amir Yaron, 2011. "What's Vol Got to Do with It," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(1), pages 1-45.
- Bjørn Eraker & Ivan Shaliastovich, 2008. "An Equilibrium Guide To Designing Affine Pricing Models," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(4), pages 519-543, October.
- Benzoni, Luca & Collin-Dufresne, Pierre & Goldstein, Robert S., 2011.
"Explaining asset pricing puzzles associated with the 1987 market crash,"
Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(3), pages 552-573, September.
- Luca Benzoni & Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein, 2010. "Explaining asset pricing puzzles associated with the 1987 market crash," Working Paper Series WP-2010-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Veronesi, Pietro, 1999. "Stock Market Overreaction to Bad News in Good Times: A Rational Expectations Equilibrium Model," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(5), pages 975-1007.
- Lando, David & Nielsen, Mads Stenbo, 2010. "Correlation in corporate defaults: Contagion or conditional independence?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 355-372, July.
- Robert A. Jarrow & Fan Yu, 2008.
"Counterparty Risk and the Pricing of Defaultable Securities,"
World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 20, pages 481-515,
World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
- Robert A. Jarrow & Fan Yu, 2001. "Counterparty Risk and the Pricing of Defaultable Securities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1765-1799, October.
- Long Chen & Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein, 2009. "On the Relation Between the Credit Spread Puzzle and the Equity Premium Puzzle," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(9), pages 3367-3409, September.
- Hong G. Min, 1998. "Determinants of emerging market bond spread : do economic fundamentals matter?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1899, The World Bank.
- Edwards, Sebastian, 1984. "LDC Foreign Borrowing and Default Risk: An Empirical Investigation, 1976-80," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(4), pages 726-734, September.
- Aït-Sahalia, Yacine & Cacho-Diaz, Julio & Laeven, Roger J.A., 2015.
"Modeling financial contagion using mutually exciting jump processes,"
Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 585-606.
- Yacine Aït-Sahalia & Julio Cacho-Diaz & Roger J.A. Laeven, 2010. "Modeling Financial Contagion Using Mutually Exciting Jump Processes," NBER Working Papers 15850, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Detemple, Jerome B, 1986. "Asset Pricing in a Production Economy with Incomplete Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(2), pages 383-391, June.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein & Jean Helwege, 2010. "Is Credit Event Risk Priced? Modeling Contagion via the Updating of Beliefs," NBER Working Papers 15733, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jennie Bai & Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein & Jean Helwege, 2012. "On bounding credit event risk premia," Staff Reports 577, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Azizpour, S & Giesecke, K. & Schwenkler, G., 2018. "Exploring the sources of default clustering," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1), pages 154-183.
- Pu, Xiaoling & Zhao, Xinlei, 2012. "Correlation in credit risk changes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1093-1106.
- Alain Monfort & Fulvio Pegoraro & Jean-Paul Renne & Guillaume Roussellet, 2021.
"Affine Modeling of Credit Risk, Pricing of Credit Events, and Contagion,"
Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(6), pages 3674-3693, June.
- Alain MONFORT & Jean-Paul RENNE & Guillaume ROUSSELLET, 2020. "Affine Modeling of Credit Risk, Pricing of Credit Events and Contagion," Working Papers 2020-01, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
- Zinna, Gabriele, 2013. "Sovereign default risk premia: Evidence from the default swap market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 15-35.
- Ang, Andrew & Longstaff, Francis A., 2013.
"Systemic sovereign credit risk: Lessons from the U.S. and Europe,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(5), pages 493-510.
- Andrew Ang & Francis A. Longstaff, 2011. "Systemic Sovereign Credit Risk: Lessons from the U.S. and Europe," NBER Working Papers 16982, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Augustin, Patrick & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Wang, Sarah Qian, 2014. "Credit Default Swaps: A Survey," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 9(1-2), pages 1-196, December.
- Aït-Sahalia, Yacine & Laeven, Roger J.A. & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2014.
"Mutual excitation in Eurozone sovereign CDS,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 183(2), pages 151-167.
- Aït-Sahalia, Yacine & Laeven, Roger J. A. & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2014. "Mutual excitation in eurozone sovereign CDS," SAFE Working Paper Series 51, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
- Xiao, Tim, 2018.
"The Valuation of Credit Default Swap with Counterparty Risk and Collateralization,"
EconStor Preprints
203447, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
- Xiao, Tim, 2019. "The Valuation of Credit Default Swap with Counterparty Risk and Collateralization," FrenXiv 6m73z, Center for Open Science.
- Xiao, Tim, 2019. "The Valuation of Credit Default Swap with Counterparty Risk and Collateralization," SocArXiv 3pzyv, Center for Open Science.
- Tim Xiao, 2019. "The Valuation of Credit Default Swap with Counterparty Risk and Collateralization," Working Papers hal-02174170, HAL.
- Xiao, Tim, 2019. "The Valuation of Credit Default Swap with Counterparty Risk and Collateralization," arabixiv.org j9hkn, Center for Open Science.
- Xiao,Tim, 2018.
"Pricing Financial Derivatives Subject to Multilateral Credit Risk and Collateralization,"
EconStor Preprints
202075, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
- Xiao, Tim, 2019. "Pricing Financial Derivatives Subject to Multilateral Credit Risk and Collateralization," arabixiv.org 86xhw, Center for Open Science.
- Xiao, Tim, 2019. "Pricing Financial Derivatives Subject to Multilateral Credit Risk and Collateralization," MPRA Paper 94441, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Xiao, Tim, 2019. "Pricing Financial Derivatives Subject to Multilateral Credit Risk and Collateralization," SocArXiv 84xjn, Center for Open Science.
- Xiao, Tim, 2019. "Pricing Financial Derivatives Subject to Multilateral Credit Risk and Collateralization," FrenXiv ej7nz, Center for Open Science.
- Tim Xiao, 2019. "Pricing Financial Derivatives Subject to Multilateral Credit Risk and Collateralization," Working Papers hal-02024147, HAL.
- Peter Christoffersen & Du Du & Redouane Elkamhi, 2017. "Rare Disasters, Credit, and Option Market Puzzles," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(5), pages 1341-1364, May.
- Alan White, 2018. "Pricing Credit Default Swap Subject to Counterparty Risk and Collateralization," Working Papers hal-01739310, HAL.
- Gouriéroux, C. & Monfort, A. & Renne, J.P., 2014.
"Pricing default events: Surprise, exogeneity and contagion,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(2), pages 397-411.
- Christian Gouriéroux & Alain Monfort & Jean-Paul Renne, 2013. "Pricing Default Events : Surprise, Exogeneity and Contagion," Working Papers 2013-03, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
- Gouriéroux, C. & Monfort, A. & Renne, J-P., 2013. "Pricing Default Events: Surprise, Exogeneity and Contagion," Working papers 455, Banque de France.
- Xiao, Tim, 2013.
"The Impact of Default Dependency and Collateralization on Asset Pricing and Credit Risk Modeling,"
MPRA Paper
47136, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Xiao,Tim, 2019. "The Impact of Default Dependency and Collateralization on Asset Pricing and Credit Risk Modeling," EconStor Preprints 201542, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
- Xiao, Tim, 2017. "The Impact of Default Dependency and Collateralization on Asset Pricing and Credit Risk Modeling," arabixiv.org 96dy5, Center for Open Science.
- Xiao, Tim, 2017. "The Impact of Default Dependency and Collateralization on Asset Pricing and Credit Risk Modeling," FrenXiv mt637, Center for Open Science.
- Xiao, Tim, 2017. "The Impact of Default Dependency and Collateralization on Asset Pricing and Credit Risk Modeling," SocArXiv u546r, Center for Open Science.
- Tim Xiao, 2019. "The Impact of Default Dependency and Collateralization on Asset Pricing and Credit Risk Modeling," Working Papers hal-02024145, HAL.
- Alain Monfort & Jean-Paul Renne, 2013.
"Default, Liquidity, and Crises: an Econometric Framework,"
Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(2), pages 221-262, March.
- Alain Monfort & Jean-Paul Renne, 2010. "Default, Liquidity and Crises : An Econometric Framework," Working Papers 2010-46, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
- Monfort, A. & Renne, J-P., 2011. "Default, liquidity and crises: an econometric framework," Working papers 340, Banque de France.
- Shi, Zhan, 2019. "Time-varying ambiguity, credit spreads, and the levered equity premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(3), pages 617-646.
- Stephanie Heck, 2022. "Corporate bond yields and returns: a survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 36(2), pages 179-201, June.
- Xiaolu Hu & Haoyi Luo & Zijin Xu & Jiang Li, 2021. "Intra‐industry spill‐over effect of default: Evidence from the Chinese bond market," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(3), pages 4703-4740, September.
- Tim, Xiao, 2019. "Pricing Credit Default Swap Subject to Counterparty Risk and Collateralization," MPRA Paper 94701, University Library of Munich, Germany.
More about this item
Keywords
Bonds - Prices; Europe - Economic conditions; Eurozone;All these keywords.
NEP fields
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:- NEP-CBA-2012-11-17 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MON-2012-11-17 (Monetary Economics)
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-2012-04. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Lauren Wiese (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbchus.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.