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The global effects of the euro debt crisis

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  • Stracca, Livio

Abstract

This paper is an event study focusing on the global effects of the euro debt crisis in 2010-2013. After identifying 18 key exogenous crisis events, I analyse the impact on equity returns, exchange rates and government bond yields in 12 advanced and 13 emerging countries. The main effect of euro debt crisis events is a rise in global risk aversion accompanied by fall in equity returns, in particular in the financial sector, in advanced countries (but not in emerging countries). The effect on bond yields is not statistically significant for the whole set of countries, but is significant and negative for key advanced countries such as the US and the UK. The paper also analyse the transmission channels by looking at how pre-crisis country characteristics influence the strength and direction of the spill-over, concluding that the transmission hinges more on trade than on fi nance. JEL Classification: F3

Suggested Citation

  • Stracca, Livio, 2013. "The global effects of the euro debt crisis," Working Paper Series 1573, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20131573
    Note: 335958
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. CHRISTOVA-BALKANSKA, Iskra, 2015. "The European Debt Crisis And The Challenges To The Banking Sector In Bulgaria," Journal of Financial and Monetary Economics, Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 2(1), pages 15-22.
    4. Shakir, Zeeniya & Masih, Mansur, 2016. "How is the European debt crisis affecting islamic equity? challenges in portfolio diversification within the eurozone: A markov switching and continuous wavelet transform analysis," MPRA Paper 71683, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Kang, Hyunju & Suh, Hyunduk, 2015. "Reverse spillover: Evidence during emerging market financial turmoil in 2013–2014," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 97-115.
    6. Andreea IANCU, 2014. "(Re)Building The European Union`S International Role Through Human Security Strategy In The Aftremaths Of The European Crisis," EURINT, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 1, pages 126-140.
    7. Akram Alkhatib & Murad Harasheh, 2018. "Performance of Exchange Traded Funds during the Brexit Referendum: An Event Study," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-12, July.
    8. Jiang, Hai & Tang, Shenfeng & Li, Lifang & Xu, Fangming & Di, Qian, 2022. "Re-examining the Contagion Channels of Global Financial Crises: Evidence from the Twelve Years since the US Subprime Crisis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    9. Haytham Y.M. Ewaida, 2016. "The European Crisis Without End: The Consequences of European Monetary Integration," International Journal of Business and Social Research, LAR Center Press, vol. 6(8), pages 15-30, August.
    10. Haytham Y.M. Ewaida, 2016. "The European Crisis Without End: The Consequences of European Monetary Integration," International Journal of Business and Social Research, MIR Center for Socio-Economic Research, vol. 6(8), pages 15-30, August.
    11. Gourène, Grakolet Arnold Zamereith & Mendy, Pierre & Ake N'gbo, Gilbert Marie, 2017. "Multiple time-xcales analysis of global stock markets spillovers effects in African stock markets," MPRA Paper 77632, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Dietmar Janetzko, 2014. "Predictive modeling in turbulent times – What Twitter reveals about the EUR/USD exchange rate," Netnomics, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 69-106, September.
    13. Antonin Rusek, 2014. "Eurozone’s Future: Convergence, Restructuring or “Muddling Through”?," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 2(3), pages 45-56.
    14. Canale, Rosaria Rita & De Simone, Elina & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2021. "Financial markets and fiscal discipline in the Eurozone," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 490-499.
    15. Kang, Sang Hoon & McIver, Ron & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2017. "Dynamic spillover effects among crude oil, precious metal, and agricultural commodity futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 19-32.
    16. Dietmar Janetzko, 2014. "Using Twitter to Model the EUR/USD Exchange Rate," Papers 1402.1624, arXiv.org.
    17. İsmail ÇEVİŞ & Reşat CEYLAN & Nihal YAYLA, 2018. "The Comparative Advantage of Contagion Channels of EU Debt Crisis to Turkish Economy," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 26(36).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    contagion; euro debt crisis; global risk aversion; spill-over;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

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