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What can changes in structural factors tell us about unemployment in Europe?

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  • Morgan, Julian
  • Mourougane, Annabelle

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of temporal variation in labour market institutions and other structural factors on unemployment in Europe. These include the influence of trade unions, social security benefits, employment security, mismatch between job seekers and vacancies, the minimum wage and factors which drive a wedge between consumer and producer prices. With this aim, a system including a labour demand and a wage equation is estimated in pooled time-series data for the six largest EU countries for the 1980s and 1990s, allowing for country-specific fixed-effects, institutional effects and adjustment terms. Our estimates suggest that changes in regional mismatch, trade union density and the ratio between consumer and producer prices are positively associated with structural unemployment. This result is robust to a wide variety of different specifications of the model, including a larger sample of eight EU countries. No consistent role is found for the other institutional factors. JEL Classification: E24, J30, C33

Suggested Citation

  • Morgan, Julian & Mourougane, Annabelle, 2001. "What can changes in structural factors tell us about unemployment in Europe?," Working Paper Series 81, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:200181
    Note: 336280
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Blanchard, Olivier & Wolfers, Justin, 2000. "The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(462), pages 1-33, March.
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    5. Stephen Nickell, 1997. "Unemployment and Labor Market Rigidities: Europe versus North America," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 55-74, Summer.
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    7. Hofer, Helmut & Pichelmann, Karl, 1999. "Employment and Wage Adjustment in Euroland's Labour Market," Economics Series 76, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    8. Booth, Alison L, 1996. "Firing Costs, Unions and Employment," CEPR Discussion Papers 1347, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Julian Morgan & Annabelle Mourougane, 2005. "What Can Changes In Structural Factors Tell Us About Unemployment In Europe?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 52(1), pages 75-104, February.
    10. Oecd, 1998. "The OECD Jobs Strategy: Progress Report on Implementation of Country-Specific Recommendations," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 196, OECD Publishing.
    11. Ray Barrell, 1993. "Internal and External Balance: The Layard, Nickell and Jackman Approach to the NAIRU and External Balance," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 20(1/2), pages 73-86, January.
    12. Manning, Alan, 1993. "Wage Bargaining and the Phillips Curve: The Identification and Specification of Aggregate Wage Equations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(416), pages 98-118, January.
    13. Julian Morgan, 2001. "Employment security and the demand for labour in Europe," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(14), pages 1763-1774.
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    Cited by:

    1. Heshmati Almas & Karlson Nils & Box Marcus, 2013. "Generality, State Neutrality and Unemployment in the OECD," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 13(3-4), pages 333-358, December.
    2. Beatrice Pierluigi & Jan Bruha & Roberta Serafini, 2014. "Euro area labour markets: Different reaction to shocks?," Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 2(2), pages 34-60, November.
    3. Nicolien Schermer, 2005. "The Synchronisation of European Labour Markets: An Analysis Using Aggregate Philips Curves," DNB Working Papers 076, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    4. Beissinger, Thomas, 2003. "Strukturelle Arbeitslosigkeit in Europa : eine Bestandsaufnahme (Structural unemployment in Europe * an inventory)," Mitteilungen aus der Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 36(4), pages 411-427.
    5. Beissinger, Thomas, 2003. "Strukturelle Arbeitslosigkeit in Europa: Eine Bestandsaufnahme," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 389, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
    6. Ulrich Fritsche & Camille Logeay & Kirsten Lommatzsch & Katja Rietzler & Sabine Stephan & Rudolf Zwiener unter Mitarb. von Cansel Kiziltepe & Christian Proano-Acosta, 2005. "Auswirkungen von länderspezifischen Differenzen in der Lohn-, Preisniveau- und Produktivitätsentwicklung auf Wachstum und Beschäftigung in den Ländern des Euroraums: Endbericht ; Forschungsprojekt im ," DIW Berlin: Politikberatung kompakt, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, volume 8, number pbk8.
    7. Wolfgang Pollan, 2012. "Incomes Policies, Expectations and the NAIRU," WIFO Working Papers 433, WIFO.
    8. Alistair Dieppe & Jerome Henry & Peter Mc Adam, "undated". "Labour market dynamics in the euro area: A model-based sensitivity analysis," Modeling, Computing, and Mastering Complexity 2003 09, Society for Computational Economics.
    9. Beissinger, Thomas, 2003. "Strukturelle Arbeitslosigkeit in Europa : eine Bestandsaufnahme (Structural unemployment in Europe * an inventory)," Mitteilungen aus der Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 36(4), pages 411-427.
    10. Julian Morgan & Annabelle Mourougane, 2005. "What Can Changes In Structural Factors Tell Us About Unemployment In Europe?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 52(1), pages 75-104, February.
    11. Francesco Paolo Mongelli, 2008. "European Economic and Monetary Integration, and the Optimum Currency Area Theory," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 302, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    12. Albert van der Horst, 2003. "Structural estimates of equilibrium unemployment in six OECD economies," CPB Discussion Paper 19, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    13. Cristiano Perugini & Marcello Signorelli, 2007. "Labour Market Performance Differentials and Dynamics in EU-15 Countries and Regions," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 4(2), pages 209-262, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Labour Market Institutions; panel estimation; structural unemployment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J30 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - General
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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