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Euro area labour markets: Different reaction to shocks?

Author

Listed:
  • Beatrice Pierluigi

    (European Central Bank, Germany)

  • Jan Bruha

    (Czech National Bank, Czech Republic)

  • Roberta Serafini

    (European Central Bank, Germany)

Abstract

A small labour market model for the six largest euro-area countries (Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands and Belgium) is estimated in a state space framework. The model entails, in the long run, four driving forces: trend labour force, trend labour productivity, long-run inflation rate and trend hours worked. The short run dynamics is governed by a VAR model including six shocks. The state-space framework is convenient for the decomposition of endogenous variables in trends and cycles, for shock decomposition, for incorporating external judgment, and for running conditional projections. The forecast performance of the model is rather satisfactory. The model is used to carry out a policy experiment with the objective of investigating whether euro-area labour markets react differently to a reduction in labour costs. Results suggest that, following the 2008-2009 recession, moderate wage growth would significantly help delivering a more job-intense recovery.

Suggested Citation

  • Beatrice Pierluigi & Jan Bruha & Roberta Serafini, 2014. "Euro area labour markets: Different reaction to shocks?," Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 2(2), pages 34-60, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:sgm:jbfeuw:v:2:y:2014:i:2:p:34-60
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    Cited by:

    1. Lafourcade, Pierre & Gerali, Andrea & Brůha, Jan & Bursian, Dirk & Buss, Ginters & Corbo, Vesna & Haavio, Markus & Håkanson, Christina & Hlédik, Tibor & Kátay, Gábor & Kulikov, Dmitry & Lozej, Matija , 2016. "Labour market modelling in the light of the financial crisis," Occasional Paper Series 175, European Central Bank.
    2. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb14/2 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb14/1 is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Labour market; Forecasting; Kalman Filter;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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