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A forward-looking tracker of negotiated wages in the euro area

Author

Listed:
  • Gόrnicka, Lucyna
  • Koester, Gerrit
  • Radowski, Daniel
  • Gautier, Erwan
  • Peinado, Mario Izquierdo
  • Stiglbauer, Alfred
  • Wittekopf, David
  • Puente, Sergio
  • Duarte, Claudia
  • Martins, Fernando
  • Basso, Gaetano
  • Lydon, Reamonn
  • Ploj, Gasper
  • Polemidiotis, Marios
  • Pönkä, Harri
  • Obstbaum, Meri
  • Petroulas, Pavlos
  • Veiga, Cindy
  • Beka, Jan
  • Benatti, Nicola
  • Fagandini, Bruno
  • Healy, Peter
  • Nizzi, Raffaella
  • Colonna, Fabrizio
  • Volkerink, Maikel
  • Antonopoulos, Christos
  • Bing, Matthias
  • Piryankov, Evgeni
  • Jimenez, Angel Luis Gomez
  • Saks, Yves
  • Coppens, Barbara
  • D’Amuri, Francesco
  • Zajankauskaitė, Justina
  • Pribuišis, Kristupas
  • Lindič, Mojca
  • Doliak, Michal
  • Monza, Aurora
  • Roca I Llevadot, Marc
  • Polichetti, Gaetano
  • Gardin, Giulia

Abstract

This paper introduces innovative, newly developed forward-looking indicators of negotiated wage growth in the euro area using data on collective bargaining agreements from seven countries: Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Austria and Greece. The paper demonstrates how agreement-level data can be used to study drivers of aggregate negotiated wage growth, as well as monitor the breadth of wage increases and account for time-varying factors such as one-off payments, when assessing wage pressures. Lastly, the paper shows that the new indicators can provide reliable signals about current and future developments of wage pressures in the euro area while also serving as important cross-checking tools for negotiated wage growth forecasts. JEL Classification: E24, J31, J50

Suggested Citation

  • Gόrnicka, Lucyna & Koester, Gerrit & Radowski, Daniel & Gautier, Erwan & Peinado, Mario Izquierdo & Stiglbauer, Alfred & Wittekopf, David & Puente, Sergio & Duarte, Claudia & Martins, Fernando & Basso, 2024. "A forward-looking tracker of negotiated wages in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 338, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2024338
    Note: 3015628
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fougère, Denis & Gautier, Erwan & Roux, Sébastien, 2018. "Wage floor rigidity in industry-level agreements: Evidence from France," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 72-97.
    2. repec:dau:papers:123456789/11158 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Gautier, Erwan & Roux, Sébastien & Suarez Castillo, Milena, 2022. "How do wage setting institutions affect wage rigidity? Evidence from French micro data," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    4. Sanvi Avouyi-Dovi & Denis Fougère & Erwan Gautier, 2013. "Wage Rigidity, Collective Bargaining, and the Minimum Wage: Evidence from French Agreement Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(4), pages 1337-1351, October.
    5. Laurent Baudry & Erwan Gautier & Sylvie Tarrieu, 2023. "Wage negotiations in a context of rising inflation [Les négociations de salaire dans le contexte de hausse de l’inflation]," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 245.
    6. Adamopoulou, Effrosyni & Villanueva, Ernesto, 2022. "Wage determination and the bite of collective contracts in Italy and Spain," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    7. Adrjan, Pawel & Lydon, Reamonn, 2022. "Wage Growth in Europe: Evidence From Job Ads," Economic Letters 7/EL/22, Central Bank of Ireland.
    8. Da Silva, António Dias & Dossche, Maarten & Dreher, Ferdinand & Foroni, Claudia & Koester, Gerrit, 2020. "Short-time work schemes and their effects on wages and disposable income," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 4.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    collective bargaining; negotiated wages; wage forecasting; wage rigidity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J50 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor-Management Relations, Trade Unions, and Collective Bargaining - - - General

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