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Wage negotiations in a context of rising inflation
[Les négociations de salaire dans le contexte de hausse de l’inflation]

Author

Listed:
  • Laurent Baudry
  • Erwan Gautier
  • Sylvie Tarrieu

Abstract

The resurgence of inflation has changed the context in which wage talks are being conducted within industries and firms. The pass-through of price rises to wages (and vice-versa) is a key challenge for monetary policy and is being closely monitored. An analysis of thousands of industry and firm-level wage agreements in France shows a significant rise in negotiated wages between the end of 2020 and start of 2023. At the industry level, the rises have been fuelled by the upward revisions to the national minimum wage (NMW) in 2022. At the individual firm level, the negotiated pay rises for 2023 average 4.4% (compared with 2.8% in 2022 and 1.4% in 2021), which in many cases will be boosted by the prime de partage de la valeur (PPV – value-sharing bonus). These results are not indicative of a wage-price spiral, and are in line with the Banque de France’s projections for a gradual decline in inflation in 2023 and a return towards the Eurosystem’s 2% target by end-2024 to end-2025. Le regain d’inflation modifie le contexte dans lequel s’effectuent les négociations salariales dans les branches et les entreprises. Enjeu central pour la politique monétaire, la transmission des hausses de prix aux salaires (et réciproquement) est suivie attentivement. L’analyse de milliers d’accords de branche et d’entreprise en France révèle que les salaires négociés ont progressé significativement entre fin 2020 et début 2023. Dans les branches, les augmentations ont été soutenues par celles du Smic en 2022. Dans les entreprises, les hausses négociées pour 2023 sont en moyenne de 4,4 % (contre 2,8 % en 2022 et 1,4 % en 2021), auxquelles s’ajoutera souvent une prime de partage de la valeur. Ces résultats ne révèlent pas d’emballement d’une spirale prix salaires et sont cohérents avec les projections de la Banque de France d’un repli graduel de l’inflation en 2023 et d’un retour vers l’objectif de 2 % de l’Eurosystème d’ici fin 2024 à fin 2025.

Suggested Citation

  • Laurent Baudry & Erwan Gautier & Sylvie Tarrieu, 2023. "Wage negotiations in a context of rising inflation [Les négociations de salaire dans le contexte de hausse de l’inflation]," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 245.
    • Handle: RePEc:bfr:bullbf:2023:245:06
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    Cited by:

    1. Gόrnicka, Lucyna & Koester, Gerrit & Radowski, Daniel & Gautier, Erwan & Peinado, Mario Izquierdo & Stiglbauer, Alfred & Wittekopf, David & Puente, Sergio & Duarte, Claudia & Martins, Fernando & Basso, 2024. "A forward-looking tracker of negotiated wages in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 338, European Central Bank.

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