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The Roads to Success: Analyzing Dropout and Degree Completion at University

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  • Elena Arias
  • Catherine Dehon

Abstract

In this paper we study the factors that influence both dropout and degree completion (4 or 5 years to earn a degree) at university using survival analysis. In particular, we apply the set of discrete-time methods for competing risks event history analysis described in Scott and Kennedy (2005). Using the competing risks model, we show that foreign students are more likely to experience consecutive enrollments without actually getting a degree. Also, having a mother with a higher education degree reduces significantly the risk of dropping out and at the same time increases the chance of graduation. Finally, the impact of a variable can evolve throughout the academic path. For example, “having chosen a strong mathematical profile during high school ” reduces significantly the risk of dropping out only in the early years of study.

Suggested Citation

  • Elena Arias & Catherine Dehon, 2011. "The Roads to Success: Analyzing Dropout and Degree Completion at University," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2011-025, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    • Handle: RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/96837
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Elena Arias Ortiz & Catherine Dehon, 2008. "What are the Factors of Success at University? A Case Study in Belgium," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 54(2), pages 121-148.
    2. Stephen L. DesJardins & Dennis A. Ahlburg & Brian P. McCall, 2002. "A Temporal Investigation of Factors Related to Timely Degree Completion," The Journal of Higher Education, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 73(5), pages 555-581, September.
    3. Ai, Chunrong & Norton, Edward C., 2003. "Interaction terms in logit and probit models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 123-129, July.
    4. Elena Arias Ortiz, 2008. "What are the Factors of Success at University? A Case Study in Belgium," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 54(2), pages 121-148, June.
    5. Jakobsen, Vibeke & Rosholm, Michael, 2003. "Dropping out of School? A Competing Risks Analysis of Young Immigrants’ Progress in the Educational System," IZA Discussion Papers 918, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
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    Cited by:

    1. Quentin Max David, 2013. "Performances et (re-)financement de l'enseignement supérieur en Communauté Française : quelles perspectives ?," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/355386, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    2. Catalina A. Vallejos & Mark F. J. Steel, 2017. "Bayesian survival modelling of university outcomes," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 180(2), pages 613-631, February.

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