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A Small Model for Output Gap and Potential Growth Estimation. An Application to Bulgaria

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  • Ganev, Kaloyan

Abstract

This paper presents the logic and structure of a small and parsimonious macroeconometric model designed for output gap and potential growth estimation in a data-poor environment. Such results can be useful in calculating the cyclically adjusted budget balances which are a key indicator for fiscal policies design in the framework of the EU Stability and Growth Pact. Empirical results using Bulgarian data are also included for illustrative purposes.

Suggested Citation

  • Ganev, Kaloyan, 2015. "A Small Model for Output Gap and Potential Growth Estimation. An Application to Bulgaria," MPRA Paper 63546, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:63546
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/63546/1/MPRA_paper_63546.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker than Others?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(1), pages 83-116.
    2. Kaloyan Ganev, 2004. "Statistical estimates of the deviations from the macroeconomic potential. An application to the economy of Bulgaria," Working paper series 12004en, Agency for Economic Analysis and Forecasting.
    3. Kaloyan Ganev, 2005. "Measuring Total Factor Productivity: Growth Accounting for Bulgaria," GE, Growth, Math methods 0504004, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 21 Apr 2005.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Milena Pesheva & Aleksandar Vasilev, 2017. "Endogenising Total Factor Productivity: The Foreign Direct Investment Channel in the Case of Bulgaria (2004-2013)," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 15(2), pages 127-145.
    2. repec:zbw:espost:170565 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Dilian Vassilev, 2021. "A Model of Natural Interest Rate: The Case of Bulgaria," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 7, pages 46-72.
    4. Ivan Todorov, 2017. "Bulgaria’s Cyclical Position and Market (Dis)equilibria," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 5, pages 30-64.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycle; output gap; potential growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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