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Is growth at risk from natural disasters ? Evidence from quantile local projections

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  • Nabil Daher

Abstract

This paper investigates the nonlinear impact of natural disasters on economic growth. Using the Quantile Local Projections (QLP) method on a panel of 68 developing countries over the period 1970-2021, we find that natural disasters have an overall nonlinear effect across economic states. In particular, while some disasters exacerbate economic downturns in low-income countries, high-income developing ones tend to exhibit more resilience to adverse impacts. We argue that the state-dependent effects of natural disasters may be influenced by business cycle phases and structural economic weaknesses, such as sectoral interdependencies and limited economic diversification, especially in low-income countries.

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  • Nabil Daher, 2025. "Is growth at risk from natural disasters ? Evidence from quantile local projections," EconomiX Working Papers 2025-9, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    • Handle: RePEc:drm:wpaper:2025-9
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Natural Disasters; Quantile Local Projections; Developing Economics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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