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The effectiveness of macroprudential policies and capital controls against volatile capital inflows

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Listed:
  • Jon Frost
  • Hiro Ito
  • René van Stralen

Abstract

This paper compares the effectiveness of macroprudential policies (MaPs) and capital controls (CCs) in influencing the volume and composition of capital inflows, and the probability of banking and currency crises. We distinguish between foreign exchange (FX)-based MaPs, which may be similar to some types of CCs, and non-FX-based MaPs. Using a panel of 83 countries over the period 2000-17, and a propensity score matching model to control for selection bias, we find that capital inflow volumes are lower where FX-based MaPs have been activated. The imposition of CCs does not have a significant effect on the volume or composition of capital inflows. Further, we find that the activation of MaPs is associated with a lower probability of banking crises and surges in capital inflows in the following three years.

Suggested Citation

  • Jon Frost & Hiro Ito & René van Stralen, 2020. "The effectiveness of macroprudential policies and capital controls against volatile capital inflows," Working Papers 686, DNB.
    • Handle: RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:686
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    2. Chari, Anusha & Dilts-Stedman, Karlye & Forbes, Kristin, 2022. "Spillovers at the extremes: The macroprudential stance and vulnerability to the global financial cycle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
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    4. Katharina Bergant & Francesco Grigoli & Niels‐Jakob Hansen & Damiano Sandri, 2024. "Dampening Global Financial Shocks: Can Macroprudential Regulation Help (More than Capital Controls)?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(6), pages 1405-1438, September.
    5. Georgia Bush & Tomás Gómez & Alejandro Jara & David Moreno & Konstantin Styrin & Yulia Ushakova, 2021. "Macroprudential policy and the inward transmission of monetary policy: The case of Chile, Mexico, and Russia," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 37-60, February.
    6. Norring, Anni, 2022. "Taming the tides of capital: Review of capital controls and macroprudential policy in emerging economies," BoF Economics Review 1/2022, Bank of Finland.
    7. Fernandez-Gallardo, Alvaro, 2023. "Preventing financial disasters: Macroprudential policy and financial crises," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    8. Kitano, Shigeto & Zhou, Yang, 2022. "Effects of China’s capital controls on individual asset categories," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    9. Jean-Charles Bricongne & Antoine Cosson & Albane Garnier-Sauveplane & Rémy Lecat & Irena Peresa & Yuliya Vanzhulova, 2021. "Financial flows, macro-prudential policies, capital restrictions and institutions: what do gravity equations tell us?," Working papers 842, Banque de France.
    10. Daniel Carvalho & Etienne Lepers & Rogelio Jr Mercado, 2021. "Taming the "Capital Flows-Credit Nexus": A Sectoral Approach," Trinity Economics Papers tep0921, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    11. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Luiz Awazu Pereira da Silva, 2021. "Macroeconomic policy under a managed float: a simple integrated framework," BIS Working Papers 964, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Kristin J. Forbes, 2021. "The International Aspects of Macroprudential Policy," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 203-228, August.
    13. Zhou, Yang, 2024. "Benefits and costs: The impact of capital control on growth-at-risk in China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    14. Kuzman, Tanja & Lazarevic, Jelisaveta & Nedeljkovic, Milan, 2022. "Capital flows liberalisation and macroprudential policies: The effects on credit cycles in emerging economies," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 602-619.
    15. Jelisaveta Lazarevic & Tanja Kuzman & Milan Nedeljkovic, 2022. "Credit cycles and macroprudential policies in emerging market economies," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 13(3), pages 633-666, September.
    16. Pawe³ Œliwiñski, 2023. "Endogenous money supply, global liquidity and financial transactions: Panel evidence from OECD countries," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 18(1), pages 121-152, March.
    17. Bank for International Settlements, 2021. "Changing patterns of capital flows," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 66, december.
    18. Sandri, Damiano & Bergant, Katharina & Grigoli, Francesco & Hansen, Niels-Jakob, 2020. "Dampening Global Financial Shocks: Can Macroprudential Regulation Help (More than Capital Controls)?," CEPR Discussion Papers 14948, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Yang Zhou, 2022. "The Effects of Capital Controls on Housing Prices," Discussion Paper Series DP2022-29, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    20. Andrikopoulos, Athanasios & Chen, Zhongfei & Chortareas, Georgios & Li, Kexin, 2023. "Global economic policy Uncertainty, gross capital Inflows, and the mitigating role of Macroprudential policies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    21. Yang, Zheng & You, Yu, 2023. "The impacts of macroprudential regulations on extreme episodes in bank flows: Whose policy helps and whose policy harms?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PA).
    22. Sebastian Edwards, 2021. "Macroprudential Policies and The Covid-19 Pandemic: Risks and Challenges For Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 29441, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    capital account openness; capital flows; capital controls; macroprudential policy; banking crises; currency crises;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F38 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Financial Policy: Financial Transactions Tax; Capital Controls
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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