IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/diw/diwwpp/dp2048.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Scenario Analysis for Net Zero: The Applicability of Climate Neutrality Studies for Transitioning Firms in the German Building Sector and Energy-Intensive Industry

Author

Listed:
  • Fernanda Ballesteros
  • Franziska Schütze
  • Catherine Marchewitz
  • Alexandra Hüttel

Abstract

Various stakeholders are increasingly encouraging companies from the real economy to adopt measures facilitating their transition towards carbon neutrality. In this context, companies are expected to implement forward-looking strategies and climate-related reporting practices using scenario analysis aligned with scientific evidence and credible pathways to net zero carbon emissions. This paper examines the potential of scenario analysis as element for transitioning to net zero. We review and compare eight existing economy and sector level climate neutrality studies for Germany that were published between 2019 and 2021, analysing their respective applicability as a science-based reference scenario for companies to strengthen strategy development and forward-looking reporting practices. Using the logical framework approach, we assess relevant transition indicators like technologies, energy and resource efficiency, carbon pricing, and other steering instruments for the building and energy-intensive industry sectors. These indicators serve to measure progress towards climate neutrality and could be included as a crucial component in transition plans. We find that, although modelling approaches for the studies differ, they often converge on similar results that can partially be translated to indicators at the firm level and, thereby, may serve as reference scenario for their transition planning.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernanda Ballesteros & Franziska Schütze & Catherine Marchewitz & Alexandra Hüttel, 2023. "Scenario Analysis for Net Zero: The Applicability of Climate Neutrality Studies for Transitioning Firms in the German Building Sector and Energy-Intensive Industry," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2048, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp2048
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.879755.de/dp2048.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Puja Singhal & Jan Stede, 2019. "Wärmemonitor 2018: Steigender Heizenergiebedarf, Sanierungsrate sollte höher sein," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 86(36), pages 619-628.
    2. Daniela Fietze & Mats Kröger & Thorsten Müller & Karsten Neuhoff, 2021. "Ein wirksames Klimaschutzgesetz braucht Frühindikatoren," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 88(41), pages 679-687.
    3. Sarah Lester & Karsten Neuhoff, 2009. "Policy targets: lessons for effective implementation of climate actions," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(5), pages 464-480, September.
    4. Martina Linnenluecke & Andrew Griffiths, 2012. "Assessing organizational resilience to climate and weather extremes: complexities and methodological pathways," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 113(3), pages 933-947, August.
    5. Casey Clark, 2019. "Climate Change Scenario Analysis for Public Market Investors," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 31(2), pages 118-123, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lim-Camacho, Lilly & Jeanneret, Talia & Hodgkinson, Jane H., 2021. "Towards resilient, responsive and rewarding mining: An adaptive value chains approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    2. Udeke Huiskamp & Bauke ten Brinke & Gert Jan Kramer, 2022. "The climate resilience cycle: Using scenario analysis to inform climate‐resilient business strategies," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(4), pages 1763-1775, May.
    3. Yung-Chieh Wang & Shyang-Woei Lin & Chun-Hung Lee, 2020. "Conducting an Evaluation Framework for Disaster Management under Adaptive Organization Change in a School System," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-19, August.
    4. Adam Choryński & Iwona Pińskwar & Dariusz Graczyk & Michał Krzyżaniak, 2022. "The Emergence of Different Local Resilience Arrangements Regarding Extreme Weather Events in Small Municipalities—A Case Study from the Wielkopolska Region, Poland," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-25, February.
    5. Gu, Xinbing & Chan, Hing Kai & Thadani, Dimple R. & Chan, Faith Ka Shun & Peng, Yi, 2023. "The role of digital techniques in organisational resilience and performance of logistics firms in response to disruptive events: Flooding as an example," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    6. Mousa Mohamed, 2018. "The Phenomenon of Climate Change in Organization and HR- Related Literature: A Conceptual Brief Analysis," HOLISTICA – Journal of Business and Public Administration, Sciendo, vol. 9(1), pages 113-121, May.
    7. Markus Groth & Annette Brunsmeier, 2016. "A cross-sectoral analysis of climate change risk drivers based on companies’ responses to the CDP’s climate change information request," Working Paper Series in Economics 364, University of Lüneburg, Institute of Economics.
    8. Hee‐Chan Song, 2022. "Retracted: Corporate sustainability amidst environmental change: Efficiency versus resilience," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(3), pages 1111-1122, March.
    9. Stephanie Duchek, 2020. "Organizational resilience: a capability-based conceptualization," Business Research, Springer;German Academic Association for Business Research, vol. 13(1), pages 215-246, April.
    10. Barbara Schlomann & Wolfgang Eichhammer, 2014. "Interaction between Climate, Emissions Trading and Energy Efficiency Targets," Energy & Environment, , vol. 25(3-4), pages 709-731, April.
    11. Nicholas Apergis & Konstantinos Gavriilidis & Rangan Gupta, 2023. "Does climate policy uncertainty affect tourism demand? Evidence from time-varying causality tests," Tourism Economics, , vol. 29(6), pages 1484-1498, September.
    12. Grego, Marica & Magnani, Giovanna & Denicolai, Stefano, 2024. "Transform to adapt or resilient by design? How organizations can foster resilience through business model transformation," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    13. Mousa Mohamed, 2018. "The Phenomenon of Climate Change in Organization and HR-Related Literature: A Conceptual Brief Analysis," Valahian Journal of Economic Studies, Sciendo, vol. 9(1), pages 101-108, April.
    14. Claudio Nuber & Patrick Velte, 2021. "Board gender diversity and carbon emissions: European evidence on curvilinear relationships and critical mass," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 1958-1992, May.
    15. Antonis Skouloudis & Thomas Tsalis & Ioannis Nikolaou & Konstantinos Evangelinos & Walter Leal Filho, 2020. "Small & Medium-Sized Enterprises, Organizational Resilience Capacity and Flash Floods: Insights from a Literature Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-17, September.
    16. Iulian Georgescu & Claudiu George Bocean & Anca Antoaneta Vărzaru & Cristina Claudia Rotea & Mădălina Giorgiana Mangra & Gabriel Ioan Mangra, 2024. "Enhancing Organizational Resilience: The Transformative Influence of Strategic Human Resource Management Practices and Organizational Culture," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-21, May.
    17. Sejin Park & Melissa Graham & Elizabeth Avery Foster, 2022. "Improving Local Government Resilience: Highlighting the Role of Internal Resources in Crisis Management," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-13, March.
    18. Stephanie Duchek & Sebastian Raetze & Ianina Scheuch, 2020. "The role of diversity in organizational resilience: a theoretical framework," Business Research, Springer;German Academic Association for Business Research, vol. 13(2), pages 387-423, July.
    19. Daniel Tisch & Jeremy Galbreath, 2018. "Building organizational resilience through sensemaking: The case of climate change and extreme weather events," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(8), pages 1197-1208, December.
    20. Jelena Budak & Edo Rajh & Suncana Slijepcevic & Bruno Skrinjaric, 2020. "Theoretical concepts of consumer resilience to online privacy violation," Working Papers 2003, The Institute of Economics, Zagreb.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate change; scenarios analysis; decarbonization; sustainability reporting; transition plans; sectoral pathways; building sector; energy-intensive industry sector;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting
    • M48 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • L52 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - Industrial Policy; Sectoral Planning Methods
    • L61 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Metals and Metal Products; Cement; Glass; Ceramics
    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp2048. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bibliothek (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/diwbede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.