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Macro News and Exchange Rates in the BRICS

Author

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  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale
  • Fabio Spagnolo
  • Nicola Spagnolo

Abstract

This paper examines the effects of newspaper headlines on the exchange rates vis-à-vis both the US dollar and the euro for the currencies of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). The data are daily and cover the period 03/1/2000- 12/5/2013. The estimated VAR-GARCH(1,1) model allows for both mean and volatility spillovers and for the possible impact of the recent financial crisis as well. The results differ across countries, but provide in a number of cases evidence of significant spillovers, whose strength appears to have increased during the crisis. Further, given the increasingly global role of these countries, their FX markets have become more responsive to foreign news.

Suggested Citation

  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Fabio Spagnolo & Nicola Spagnolo, 2016. "Macro News and Exchange Rates in the BRICS," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1545, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1545
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Yousaf, Imran & Karim, Sitara & Yarovaya, Larisa & Ali, Shoaib, 2023. "Tail-event driven NETwork dependence in emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    2. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Menla Ali, Faek & Spagnolo, Fabio & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2022. "Cross-border portfolio flows and news media coverage," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    3. Svatopluk Kapounek & Zuzana Kučerová & Evžen Kočenda, 2022. "Selective Attention in Exchange Rate Forecasting," Journal of Behavioral Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(2), pages 210-229, May.
    4. Kočenda, Evžen & Moravcová, Michala, 2018. "Intraday effect of news on emerging European forex markets: An event study analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 597-615.
    5. Gkillas, Konstantinos & Konstantatos, Christoforos & Tsagkanos, Athanasios & Siriopoulos, Costas, 2021. "Do economic news releases affect tail risk? Evidence from an emerging market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    6. Demir, Ender & Ersan, Oguz, 2017. "Economic policy uncertainty and cash holdings: Evidence from BRIC countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 189-200.
    7. Tamgac, Unay, 2021. "Emerging market exchange rates during quantitative tapering: The effect of US and domestic news," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    8. Ekinci, Cumhur & Akyildirim, Erdinc & Corbet, Shaen, 2019. "Analysing the dynamic influence of US macroeconomic news releases on Turkish stock markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 155-164.
    9. Rognone, Lavinia & Hyde, Stuart & Zhang, S. Sarah, 2020. "News sentiment in the cryptocurrency market: An empirical comparison with Forex," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    10. Ur Rehman, Mobeen & Al Rababa'a, Abdel Razzaq & El-Nader, Ghaith & Alkhataybeh, Ahmad & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2022. "Modelling the quantile cross-coherence between exchange rates: Does the COVID-19 pandemic change the interlinkage structure?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    11. Yin, Libo, 2020. "Can the intermediary capital risk predict foreign exchange rates?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    12. Jolanta Pasionek, 2020. "Countries of BRICS group on Forex market," Ekonomia i Prawo, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 19(1), pages 99-117, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    BRICS; Exchange Rates; GARCH model; Macro news;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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