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Macro News and Stock Returns in the Euro Area: A VAR-GARCH-in-Means Analysis

Author

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  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale
  • Fabio Spagnolo
  • Nicola Spagnolo

Abstract

This paper analyses the effects of newspaper coverage of macro news on stock returns in eight countries belonging to the euro area (Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain) using daily data for the period 1994-2013. The econometric analysis is based on the estimation of a VAR-GARCH-in-mean model. The results can be summarised as follows. Positive (negative) news have significant positive (negative) effects on stock returns in all cases. Their volatility has a significant impact on both stock returns and volatility; specifically, an increase in news volatility is always associated with a decrease in stock returns. Markets are particularly responsive to negative news, and the reaction is bigger in the PIIGS countries, and during the recent crisis period.

Suggested Citation

  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Fabio Spagnolo & Nicola Spagnolo, 2014. "Macro News and Stock Returns in the Euro Area: A VAR-GARCH-in-Means Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 4912, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4912
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    9. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Fabio Spagnolo & Nicola Spagnolo, 2018. "Macro news and bond yield spreads in the euro area," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(2), pages 114-134, January.
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    18. Cao, Zhen & Han, Liyan & Zhang, Qunzi, 2022. "Stock return predictability in China: Power of oil price trend," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    macro news; volatility spillovers; VAR-GARCH-in-mean model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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