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A Market Screening Model for Price Inconstancies: Empirical Evidence from German Electricity Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Korbinian von Blanckenburg
  • Marc Hanfeld
  • Konstantin A. Kholodilin

Abstract

In this paper, we develop a market screening model to detect inconstancies in price changes. Although there is a long history of industrial organization research of collusion, price setting behavior, and conduct - a robust model to detect structural changes in market structure was missing so far. Our non-parametric approach closes this gap and can be used as a tentative warning system for emerging collusions. Based on the theoretical and empirical results from previous research, we describe requirements of screenings, develop a model, and illustrate our approach with a short market simulation. Finally, we apply the model to the German electricity market. According to our results, between 2001 and 2011 energy suppliers appear to be successful in controlling the market price for several phases.

Suggested Citation

  • Korbinian von Blanckenburg & Marc Hanfeld & Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2013. "A Market Screening Model for Price Inconstancies: Empirical Evidence from German Electricity Markets," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1274, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1274
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John Connor, 2005. "Collusion and price dispersion," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(6), pages 335-338.
    2. Korbinian Blanckenburg & Alexander Geist, 2011. "Detecting illegal activities: the case of cartels," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 15-33, August.
    3. Kai Hüschelrath & Tobias Veith, 2014. "Cartel Detection in Procurement Markets," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(6), pages 404-422, September.
    4. Stigler, George J & Sherwin, Robert A, 1985. "The Extent of the Market," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 28(3), pages 555-585, October.
      • Stigler, George J. & Sherwin, Robert A., 1983. "The Extent of the Market," Working Papers 31, The University of Chicago Booth School of Business, George J. Stigler Center for the Study of the Economy and the State.
    5. Pim Heijnen & Marco A. Haan & Adriaan R. Soetevent, 2015. "Screening for collusion: a spatial statistics approach," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(2), pages 417-448.
    6. Blanckenburg Korbinian von & Kholodilin Konstantin A. & Geist Alexander, 2012. "The Influence of Collusion on Price Changes: New Evidence from Major Cartel Cases," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 13(3), pages 245-256, August.
    7. Abrantes-Metz, Rosa M. & Froeb, Luke M. & Geweke, John & Taylor, Christopher T., 2006. "A variance screen for collusion," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 467-486, May.
    8. Weigt, Hannes & Hirschhausen, Christian von, 2008. "Price formation and market power in the German wholesale electricity market in 2006," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 4227-4234, November.
    9. Carlson, John A & McAfee, R Preston, 1983. "Discrete Equilibrium Price Dispersion," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(3), pages 480-493, June.
    10. Korbinian Blanckenburg & Alexander Geist, 2009. "How Can a Cartel Be Detected?," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 15(4), pages 421-436, November.
    11. Bolotova, Yuliya & Connor, John M. & Miller, Douglas J., 2008. "The impact of collusion on price behavior: Empirical results from two recent cases," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1290-1307, November.
    12. Sensfuß, Frank & Ragwitz, Mario & Genoese, Massimo, 2008. "The merit-order effect: A detailed analysis of the price effect of renewable electricity generation on spot market prices in Germany," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 3076-3084, August.
    13. Joseph E. Harrington, 2005. "Optimal Cartel Pricing In The Presence Of An Antitrust Authority," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 46(1), pages 145-169, February.
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    15. Felix Müsgens, 2006. "Quantifying Market Power In The German Wholesale Electricity Market Using A Dynamic Multi‐Regional Dispatch Model," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(4), pages 471-498, December.
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    17. repec:kap:iaecre:v:15:y:2009:i:4:p:421-436 is not listed on IDEAS
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Market screening; collusion; competition policy; energy markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L10 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - General
    • L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General

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