IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/dar/wpaper/80589.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Trillion Dollar Estimate: Illicit Financial Flows from Developing Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Nitsch, Volker

Abstract

Recent estimates suggest that developing countries lose about 1 trillion US dollars each year due to illicit financial flows. This paper reviews the empirical methodology that underlies those estimates. Various critical aspects of the analytical approach are highlighted, focusing in particular on deficiencies in the use of mirror trade statistics to quantify the extent of capital outflows due to trade misinvoicing. Serious issues in the empirical analysis include, among others, arbitrary assumptions, mixed methodologies and skewed sampling. As a result, it is argued that the quantitative results obtained from those exercises have no substantive meaning. The trillion-dollar estimate of illicit financial flows from developing countries, therefore, lacks evidence and is uncorroborated.

Suggested Citation

  • Nitsch, Volker, 2016. "Trillion Dollar Estimate: Illicit Financial Flows from Developing Countries," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 80589, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    • Handle: RePEc:dar:wpaper:80589
    Note: for complete metadata visit http://tubiblio.ulb.tu-darmstadt.de/80589/
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://tuprints.ulb.tu-darmstadt.de/5437
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Berger, Helge & Nitsch, Volker, 2008. "Gotcha! A Profile of Smuggling in International Trade," Conference papers 331735, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    2. Raymond Fisman & Shang-Jin Wei, 2009. "The Smuggling of Art, and the Art of Smuggling: Uncovering the Illicit Trade in Cultural Property and Antiques," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(3), pages 82-96, July.
    3. Ferrantino, Michael J. & Liu, Xuepeng & Wang, Zhi, 2012. "Evasion behaviors of exporters and importers: Evidence from the U.S.–China trade data discrepancy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 141-157.
    4. Storti, Cláudia Costa & De Grauwe, Paul (ed.), 2012. "Illicit Trade and the Global Economy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262016559, December.
    5. Nitsch, Volker, 2011. "Trade mispricing and illicit flows," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 206, Darmstadt University of Technology, Department of Law and Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jean-Louis Combes & Alexandru Minea & Pegdéwendé Nestor Sawadogo, 2019. "Assessing the effects of combating illicit financial flows on domestic tax revenue mobilization in developing countries," Post-Print halshs-02315734, HAL.
    2. Mianshan Lai & Jia Hou, 2023. "Let us misinvoice more? The effect of de jure capital controls on trade misinvoicing," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(7), pages 2157-2186, July.
    3. Carton, Christine & Slim, Sadri, 2018. "Trade misinvoicing in OECD countries: what can we learn from bilateral trade intensity indices?," MPRA Paper 85703, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Paddy Carter & Alex Cobham, 2016. "Are taxes good for your health?," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2016-171, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    5. Mario Gara & Michele Giammatteo & Enrico Tosti, 2018. "Magic mirror in my hand�. how trade mirror statistics can help us detect illegal financial flows," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 445, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. Dujava, Daniel & Siranova, Maria, 2022. "Is it me or you? A deeper insight into profile of misreporting economies," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 10-25.
    7. Cobham Alex & Davis William & Ibrahim Gamal & Sumner Andy, 2016. "Hidden Inequality: How Much Difference Would Adjustment for Illicit Financial Flows Make to National Income Distributions?," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 7(2), pages 1-18, December.
    8. Daniel Dujava & Maria Siranova, 2017. "Getting the Measures of Trade Misinvoicing Right: Bilateral Panel Data Approach," Working Papers wp98, Institute of Economic Research, Slovak Academy of Sciences, revised 20 Dec 2017.
    9. Niels Johannesen & Jukka Pirttilä, 2016. "Capital flight and development: An overview of concepts, methods, and data sources," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2016-95, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    10. Paddy Carter & Alex Cobham, 2016. "Are taxes good for your health?," WIDER Working Paper Series 171, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    11. Niels Johannesen & Jukka Pirttilä, 2016. "Capital flight and development: An overview of concepts, methods, and data sources," WIDER Working Paper Series 095, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    12. Olalere Isaac Opeyemi, 2022. "Predicting Trade Mispricing: A Gaussian Multivariate Anomaly Detection Model ," GATR Journals jber221, Global Academy of Training and Research (GATR) Enterprise.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mario Gara & Michele Giammatteo & Enrico Tosti, 2018. "Magic mirror in my hand�. how trade mirror statistics can help us detect illegal financial flows," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 445, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Carton, Christine & Slim, Sadri, 2018. "Trade misinvoicing in OECD countries: what can we learn from bilateral trade intensity indices?," MPRA Paper 85703, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Nitsch, Volker, 2011. "Trade Mispricing and Illicit Flows," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 54540, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    4. Dujava, Daniel & Siranova, Maria, 2022. "Is it me or you? A deeper insight into profile of misreporting economies," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 10-25.
    5. Mehdi Abid, 2019. "Estimating the Size of the Informal Trade Across the World: Evidence from a MIMIC Approach," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 10(2), pages 618-669, June.
    6. Joel CARIOLLE & Cyril CHALENDARD & Anne-Marie GEOURJON & Bertrand LAPORTE, 2017. "Going beyond analysis of internal data to support customs modernization: A case study in Gabon," Working Papers 201723, CERDI.
    7. Joel CARIOLLE & Cyril CHALENDARD & Anne-Marie GEOURJON & Bertrand LAPORTE, 2016. "Décloisonner l’analyse des données pour appuyer la modernisation des douanes : une illustration à partir du Gabon," Working Papers 201618, CERDI.
    8. Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza, 2009. "Illegal trade in the Iranian economy: Evidence from a structural model," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 489-507, December.
    9. Daniel Dujava & Maria Siranova, 2017. "Getting the Measures of Trade Misinvoicing Right: Bilateral Panel Data Approach," Working Papers wp98, Institute of Economic Research, Slovak Academy of Sciences, revised 20 Dec 2017.
    10. repec:oxf:wpaper:oxcarre-research-paper-139 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Ndoricimpa, Arcade, 2024. "The ugly side of the Africa-UAE (United Arab Emirates) gold trade: Gold export misreporting and smuggling," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    12. de Groot, Olaf J. & Rablen, Matthew D. & Shortland, Anja, 2011. "Gov-Aargh-Nance – “Even Criminals Need Law And Order”," NEPS Working Papers 7/2011, Network of European Peace Scientists.
    13. Mohammad Farhad & Michael Jetter & Abu Siddique & Andrew Williams, 2018. "Misreported Trade," CESifo Working Paper Series 7150, CESifo.
    14. Pierre-Louis Vézina, 2015. "Illegal trade in natural resources: Evidence from missing exports," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 142, pages 152-160.
    15. Lin, Shu & Xiao, Jinchuan & Ye, Haichun, 2020. "Disguised carry trade and the transmission of global liquidity shocks: Evidence from China’s goods trade data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    16. Olaf J. de Groot & Anja Shortland, 2010. "Gov-arrrgh-nance: Jolly Rogers and Dodgy Rulers," Economics of Security Working Paper Series 39, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    17. Shaar, Karam, 2019. "Essays on modern economic issues in international trade, exchange rates and housing," Working Paper Series 8039, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    18. Lorenzo Rotunno & Pierre-Louis Vézina, 2012. "Chinese Networks and Tariff Evasion," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(12), pages 1772-1794, December.
    19. McCully, Brett, 2021. "Immigrants, Legal Status, and Illegal Trade," MPRA Paper 109610, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Andreas Buehn & Mohammad Reza Farzanegan, 2012. "Smuggling around the world: evidence from a structural equation model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(23), pages 3047-3064, August.
    21. Ariaster B. Chimeli & Rodrigo R. Soares, 2017. "The Use of Violence in Illegal Markets: Evidence from Mahogany Trade in the Brazilian Amazon," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 30-57, October.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F38 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Financial Policy: Financial Transactions Tax; Capital Controls

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dar:wpaper:80589. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Dekanatssekretariat (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ivthdde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.