IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-00710057.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Smuggling around the World: Evidence from a Structural Equation Model

Author

Listed:
  • Andreas Buehn

    (Faculty of Business and Economics - TU Dresden - Technische Universität Dresden = Dresden University of Technology)

  • Mohammad Reza Farzanegan

    (Faculty of Business and Economics - TU Dresden - Technische Universität Dresden = Dresden University of Technology)

Abstract

This paper uses a Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes (MIMIC) model to analyze the determinants of smuggling. The analysis reveals that higher corruption and a lower rule of law encourage smuggling. Tariffs and trade restrictions are important push factors, while a higher black market premium (BMP) discourages smugglers. Based on the MIMIC estimates, we calculate an index of smuggling which provides a ranking for 54 countries. We find that smuggling is rampant in Cameroon, Pakistan, and Kenya while it is least prevalent in Switzerland, Finland, and Sweden.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas Buehn & Mohammad Reza Farzanegan, 2011. "Smuggling around the World: Evidence from a Structural Equation Model," Post-Print hal-00710057, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00710057
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2011.570715
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-00710057
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.science/hal-00710057/document
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/00036846.2011.570715?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Helge Berger & Volker Nitsch, 2008. "Gotcha! A Profile of Smuggling in International Trade," DEGIT Conference Papers c013_026, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    2. Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza, 2009. "Illegal trade in the Iranian economy: Evidence from a structural model," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 489-507, December.
    3. Simon Johnson & Daniel Kaufman & Andrei Shleifer, 1997. "The Unofficial Economy in Transition," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(2), pages 159-240.
    4. Angel Alanon & M. Gomez-Antonio, 2005. "Estimating the size of the shadow economy in Spain: a structural model with latent variables," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(9), pages 1011-1025.
    5. Romain Wacziarg & Karen Horn Welch, 2008. "Trade Liberalization and Growth: New Evidence," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 22(2), pages 187-231, June.
    6. Schneider, Friedrich, 2005. "Shadow economies around the world: what do we really know?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 598-642, September.
    7. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48.
    8. Dreher, Axel & Kotsogiannis, Christos & McCorriston, Steve, 2007. "Corruption around the world: Evidence from a structural model," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 443-466, September.
    9. Raymond Fisman & Shang-Jin Wei, 2009. "The Smuggling of Art, and the Art of Smuggling: Uncovering the Illicit Trade in Cultural Property and Antiques," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(3), pages 82-96, July.
    10. Jha, Prabhat & Chaloupka, Frank (ed.), 2000. "Tobacco Control in Developing Countries," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780192632463.
    11. Kaufmann, Daniel & Kraay, Aart & Mastruzzi, Massimo, 2007. "Governance Matters VI: Aggregate and Individual Governance Indicators, 1996-2006," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4280, The World Bank.
    12. Raymond Fisman & Shang-Jin Wei, 2004. "Tax Rates and Tax Evasion: Evidence from "Missing Imports" in China," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(2), pages 471-500, April.
    13. Jagdish Bhagwati & Bent Hansen, 1973. "A Theoretical Analysis of Smuggling," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 87(2), pages 172-187.
    14. Sheikh, Munir A., 1974. "Smuggling, production and welfare," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 355-364, November.
    15. Pitt, Mark M., 1984. "Smuggling and the black market for foreign exchange," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3-4), pages 243-257, May.
    16. Martin, Lawrence & Panagariya, Arvind, 1984. "Smuggling, trade, and price disparity: A crime-theoretic approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3-4), pages 201-217, November.
    17. Pitt, Mark M., 1981. "Smuggling and price disparity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 447-458, November.
    18. World Bank, 2006. "World Development Indicators 2006," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 8151.
    19. Axel Dreher, 2006. "Does globalization affect growth? Evidence from a new index of globalization," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(10), pages 1091-1110.
    20. Andreas Buehn & Stefan Eichler, 2009. "Smuggling Illegal versus Legal Goods across the U.S.-Mexico Border: A Structural Equations Model Approach," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 76(2), pages 328-350, October.
    21. Biswas, Amit K. & Marjit, Sugata, 2007. "Preferential trade and mis-invoicing: Some analytical implications," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 130-138.
    22. Goldberger, Arthur S, 1972. "Structural Equation Methods in the Social Sciences," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 40(6), pages 979-1001, November.
    23. Sanjib Pohit & Nisha Taneja, 2003. "India's Informal Trade with Bangladesh: A Qualitative Assessment," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(8), pages 1187-1214, August.
    24. Loayza, Norman V., 1996. "The economics of the informal sector: a simple model and some empirical evidence from Latin America," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 129-162, December.
    25. repec:bla:econom:v:55:y:1988:i:217:p:107-18 is not listed on IDEAS
    26. Marie Thursby & Richard Jensen & Jerry Thursby, 1991. "Smuggling, Camouflaging, and Market Structure," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(3), pages 789-814.
    27. Alan Deardorff & Wolfgang Stolper, 1990. "Effects of smuggling under african conditions: A factual, institutional and analytic discussion," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 126(1), pages 116-141, March.
    28. Basim Makhoul & Samuel Otterstrom, 1998. "Exploring the accuracy of international trade statistics," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(12), pages 1603-1616.
    29. Jorge Braga de Macedo, 1987. "Currency Incontrovertibility, Trade Taxes and Smuggling," NBER Working Papers 2177, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Edsel L. Beja, 2008. "Estimating Trade Mis‐invoicing from China: 2000–2005," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 16(2), pages 82-92, March.
    31. Andreas Buehn & Alexander Karmann & Friedrich Schneider, 2009. "Shadow Economy and Do-it-Yourself Activities: The German Case," Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE), Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 165(4), pages 701-722, December.
    32. Hossein Askari, 2006. "Middle East Oil Exporters," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 4232.
    33. Paolo Mauro, 1995. "Corruption and Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(3), pages 681-712.
    34. Paldam, Martin, 2002. "The cross-country pattern of corruption: economics, culture and the seesaw dynamics," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 215-240, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza, 2009. "Illegal trade in the Iranian economy: Evidence from a structural model," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 489-507, December.
    2. Rafat MAHMOOD & Eatzaz AHMAD, 2015. "Measurement Of Import Smuggling In Pakistan," Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, Applied Economics Research Centre, vol. 25(2), pages 135-159.
    3. Buehn, Andreas & Schneider, Friedrich, 2009. "Corruption and the Shadow Economy: A Structural Equation Model Approach," IZA Discussion Papers 4182, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Alexandra Rudolph & Friedrich Schneider, 2017. "International Human Trafficking: Measuring Clandestinity by the Structural Equation Approach," Social Inclusion, Cogitatio Press, vol. 5(2), pages 39-58.
    5. Andreas Buehn & Friedrich Schneider, 2012. "Corruption and the shadow economy: like oil and vinegar, like water and fire?," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 19(1), pages 172-194, February.
    6. Heli Virta, 2010. "The linkage between corruption and shadow economy size: does geography matter?," International Journal of Development Issues, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 9(1), pages 4-24, April.
    7. Connely, Michael & Devereux, John & Cortes, Mariluz, 1995. "The transhipment problem: Smuggling and welfare in Paraguay," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 975-985, June.
    8. Axel Dreher & Pierre-Guillaume Méon & Friedrich Schneider, 2014. "The devil is in the shadow. Do institutions affect income and productivity or only official income and official productivity?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 158(1), pages 121-141, January.
    9. Scott Fausti, 1999. "Production uncertainty, enforcement, and smuggling: a stochastic model," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 279-308.
    10. Lars P. Feld & Friedrich Schneider, 2011. "Survey on the Shadow Economy and Undeclared Work in OECD Countries," Chapters, in: Friedrich Schneider (ed.), Handbook on the Shadow Economy, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    11. A. Bühn & M.R. Farzanega, 2011. "Hold Your Breath: A New Index of Air Quality," Working Papers 11-24, Utrecht School of Economics.
    12. Schneider, Friedrich, 2012. "The Shadow Economy and Work in the Shadow: What Do We (Not) Know?," IZA Discussion Papers 6423, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Yalta, A. Yasemin & Demir, Ishak, 2010. "The Extent of Trade Mis-Invoicing in Turkey: Did Post-1990 Policies Matter?," MPRA Paper 30186, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Bruno Larue & Sébastien Pouliot & Christos Constantatos, 2009. "Exports to Smuggle and Smuggling Technologies," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 476-493, August.
    15. Hernandez, Diego & Rudolph, Alexandra, 2015. "Modern day slavery: What drives human trafficking in Europe?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 118-139.
    16. Schneider, Friedrich G. & Buehn, Andreas, 2009. "Shadow economies and corruption all over the world: revised estimates for 120 countries," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 1, pages 1-53.
    17. Ferrier, Peyton Michael, 2008. "Illicit Agricultural Trade," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 37(2), pages 1-15.
    18. Temesgen Worku & Juan P. Mendoza & Jacco L. Wielhouwer, 2016. "Tariff evasion in sub-Saharan Africa: the influence of corruption in importing and exporting countries," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 23(4), pages 741-761, August.
    19. Schneider Friedrich & Buehn Andreas, 2017. "Shadow Economy: Estimation Methods, Problems, Results and Open questions," Open Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-29, March.
    20. Axel Dreher & Friedrich Schneider, 2010. "Corruption and the shadow economy: an empirical analysis," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 144(1), pages 215-238, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Social Sciences & Humanities;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00710057. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.