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Disguised carry trade and the transmission of global liquidity shocks: Evidence from China’s goods trade data

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  • Lin, Shu
  • Xiao, Jinchuan
  • Ye, Haichun

Abstract

Currency carry trade disguised as goods trade can potentially channel external financial shocks to domestic economic environment, despite capital controls. We identify this channel in the context of post-GFC China using variations in product characteristics and a policy shock. We show that trade volumes of cost-efficient products responded significantly more to carry returns. However, such differential responses to carry returns vanished after the government’s clampdown on illicit capital flows. At the aggregate level, we demonstrate further that the surge in disguised carry trades led to a significant expansion of China’s shadow banking credit but not its traditional bank lending credit.

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  • Lin, Shu & Xiao, Jinchuan & Ye, Haichun, 2020. "Disguised carry trade and the transmission of global liquidity shocks: Evidence from China’s goods trade data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:104:y:2020:i:c:s0261560620301364
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2020.102180
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    2. Ziyun Zhang & Sen Guo, 2021. "What Factors Affect the RMB Carry Trade Return for Sustainability? An Empirical Analysis by Using an ARDL Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-19, December.
    3. Liu, Renliang & Sheng, Liugang & Wang, Jian, 2023. "Faking trade for capital control evasion: Evidence from dual exchange rate arbitrage in China," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    4. Renliang Liu & Thanasis Stengos, 2023. "What Drives Illicit Financial Flows? An Empirical Study of Trade Data Discrepancies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 371-409, April.
    5. Xuepeng Liu & Heiwai Tang & Zhi Wang & Shang-Jin Wei, 2023. "Currency Carry Trade by Trucks: The Curious Case of China’s Massive Imports from Itself," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(2), pages 469-493.

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