Extrapolation Bias and the Predictability of Stock Returns by Price-Scaled Variables

Using survey data on expectations of stock returns, we recursively estimate the degree of extrapolative weighting in investors’ beliefs (DOX). In an extrapolation framework, DOX determines the relative weight investors place on recent-versus-distant returns. DOX varies considerably over time. The ability of price-scaled variables to predict the year-ahead equity premium is contingent on DOX. High price-scaled variables are followed by lower returns only when DOX is high. Our findings support extrapolation-based theories of the stock market and the interpretation of price-scaled variables as mispricing proxies. Our results help answer a critical question: when will an overvalued asset experience a correction?Received December 5, 2015; editorial decision June 22, 2017 by Editor Robin Greenwood. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web Site next to the link to the final published paper online.