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Population Density, Fertility and Demographic Convergence in Developing Countries

Author

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  • David de la Croix

    (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) and Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE))

  • Paula E. Gobbi

    (National Fund for Scientific Research (FNRS) and UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES))

Abstract

Whether the population tends towards a long-run stationary value depends on forces of demographic convergence. One such force is the result of fertility rates being negatively affected by population density. We test the existence of such an effect in 44 developing countries, matching georeferenced data from the Demographic and Health Surveys for half a million women with population density grids. When we correct for selection and endogeneity bias and control for the usual determinants of fertility such as education and income, a rise in density from 10 to 1000 inhabitants per square kilometer corresponds with a decrease in fertility of about 0.6 of a child. Duration analysis reveals that both age at marriage and age at first birth increase with density.

Suggested Citation

  • David de la Croix & Paula E. Gobbi, 2016. "Population Density, Fertility and Demographic Convergence in Developing Countries," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2016003, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    • Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvir:2016003
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    10. Pombo, Daniel Vázquez & Martinez-Rico, Jon & Spataru, Sergiu V. & Bindner, Henrik W. & Sørensen, Poul E., 2023. "Decarbonizing energy islands with flexibility-enabling planning: The case of Santiago, Cape Verde," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    11. I. Bryzhan & V. Chevhanova & Î. Hryhoryeva & L. Svystun, 2020. "Approaches to forecasting demography trends in the management of integrated area development," Economy and Forecasting, Valeriy Heyets, issue 2, pages 21-42.
    12. Deseau, Arnaud, 2024. "Speed of convergence in a Malthusian world: Weak or strong homeostasis?," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demographic and Health Survey; Preventive check; Agglomeration externalities; Population Dynamics; Marriage;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • D19 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Other
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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