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Sovereign default risk and commitment for fiscal adjustment

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  • Guimaraes, Bernardo
  • Gonçalves, Carlos Eduardo

Abstract

This paper studies fiscal policy in a model of sovereign debt and default. A time-inconsistency problem arises: since the price of past debt cannot be affected by current fiscal policy and governments cannot credibly commit to a certain path of tax rates, debtor countries choose suboptimally low fiscal adjustments. An international lender of last resort, capable of designing an implicit contract that coax debtors into a tougher fiscal stance via the provision of cheap (but senior) lending in times of crisis, can work as a commitment device and improve social welfare.

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  • Guimaraes, Bernardo & Gonçalves, Carlos Eduardo, 2012. "Sovereign default risk and commitment for fiscal adjustment," CEPR Discussion Papers 9163, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9163
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    2. Guimarães, Bernardo de Vasconcellos & Ladeira, Carlos Eduardo de Almeida, 2015. "The determinants of IMF fiscal conditionalities: economics or politics?," Textos para discussão 391, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    3. Alamgir, Farzana & Cotoc, Johnny & Johri, Alok, 2023. "The bribe rate and long run differences in sovereign borrowing costs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    4. Bernardo Guimaraes & Oz Iazdi, 2015. "IMF conditionalities, liquidity provision, and incentives for fiscal adjustment," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 22(5), pages 705-722, October.
    5. Stefan Niemann & Paul Pichler, 2020. "Optimal fiscal policy and sovereign debt crises," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 234-254, July.
    6. Siming Liu & Hewei Shen, 2022. "Fiscal Commitment and Sovereign Default Risk," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 46, pages 98-123, October.
    7. Bernardo Guimaraes & Lucas Tumkus, 2020. "On the costs of sovereign default in quantitative models," Discussion Papers 2021, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    8. Hatchondo, Juan Carlos & Martinez, Leonardo & Roch, Francisco, 2022. "Numerical fiscal rules for economic unions: The role of sovereign spreads," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    9. Javier Bianchi & Pablo Ottonello & Ignacio Presno, 2023. "Fiscal Stimulus under Sovereign Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 131(9), pages 2328-2369.
    10. Arazmuradov, Annageldy, 2016. "Assessing sovereign debt default by efficiency," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 100-113.
    11. Bernardo Guimaraes & Carlos Eduardo Ladeira, 2021. "The determinants of IMF fiscal conditionality: Economics or politics?," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(3), pages 1361-1399, November.
    12. Stefan Niemann & Paul Pichler, 2020. "Optimal fiscal policy and sovereign debt crises," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 234-254, July.
    13. Siming Liu & Hewei Shen, 2022. "Fiscal Commitment and Sovereign Default Risk," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 46, pages 98-123, October.
    14. Cordella, Tito & Powell, Andrew, 2021. "Preferred and non-preferred creditors," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    15. Tamon Asonuma & Hyungseok Joo, 2021. "Public Capital and Fiscal Constraint in Sovereign Debt Crises," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0621, School of Economics, University of Surrey.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal adjustment; IMF; Sovereign debt; Sovereign default; Time inconsistency;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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