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Do News Shocks Drive Business Cycles? Evidence from German Data

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  • Lucke, Bernd
  • Haertel, Thomas

Abstract

We study the Beaudry and Portier (2006)-hypothesis of delayed-technology diffusion and news-driven business cycles. For German data on TFP and stock prices we find qualitatively similar empirical evidence. Quantitatively, however, an impulse response analysis suggests that a substantial part of the total TFP response is immediate rather than delayed. We relate this to disembodied technological change and noisy data on TFP. Nevertheless, we confirm the technology interpretation of structural shocks by showing that they are Granger-causal for data on patents granted by the German patent agency. We also show that these shocks generate comovement of macro variables at business cycle horizons and account for a sizable share of the forecast error variance of these variables in the medium and long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Lucke, Bernd & Haertel, Thomas, 2008. "Do News Shocks Drive Business Cycles? Evidence from German Data," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 2, pages 1-21.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifweej:7127
    DOI: 10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2008-10
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2006. "Stock Prices, News, and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1293-1307, September.
    2. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February.
    3. Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2009. "Can News about the Future Drive the Business Cycle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1097-1118, September.
    4. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2005. "The "news view" of economic fluctuations: Evidence from aggregate Japanese data and sectoral US data," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 635-652, December.
    5. Guido Lorenzoni, 2009. "A Theory of Demand Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(5), pages 2050-2084, December.
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. RBC as gaslighting
      by Noah Smith in Noahpinion on 2015-09-03 02:35:00

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    Cited by:

    1. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Luca Sala, 2014. "No News in Business Cycles," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(581), pages 1168-1191, December.
    2. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2014. "News-Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(4), pages 993-1074, December.
    3. Bernd Lucke, 2013. "Testing the technology interpretation of news shocks," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(1), pages 1-13, January.
    4. Fève, Patrick & Matheron, Julien & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2009. "On the dynamic implications of news shocks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 96-98, February.
    5. Markku Lanne & Helmut Lütkepohl, 2008. "Stock Prices and Economic Fluctuations: A Markov Switching Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 2407, CESifo.
    6. Seymen, Atılım, 2012. "Nachrichtenschocks als treibende Kraft der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Dynamik," ZEW Wachstums- und Konjunkturanalysen, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, vol. 15(2), pages 10-11.
    7. Seymen, Atılım, 2013. "Sequential identification of technological news shocks," ZEW Discussion Papers 13-111, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    News; business cycles; TFP; structural VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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