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Population density, fertility, and demographic convergence in developing countries

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  • Davild DE LA CROIX
  • Paula E. GOBBI

Abstract

Whether the population tends towards a long-run stationary value depends on forces of demographic convergence. One such force is the result of fertility rates being negatively affected by population density. We test the existence of such an effect in 44 developing countries, matching georeferenced data from the Demographic and Health Surveys for half a million women with population density grids. When we correct for selection and endogeneity bias and control for the usual determinants of fertility such as education and income, a rise in density from 10 to 1000 inhabitants per square kilometer corresponds with a decrease in fertility of about 0.6 of a child. Duration analysis reveals that both age at marriage and age at first birth increase with density.
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  • Davild DE LA CROIX & Paula E. GOBBI, 2017. "Population density, fertility, and demographic convergence in developing countries," LIDAM Reprints CORE 2871, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    • Handle: RePEc:cor:louvrp:2871
    Note: In : Journal of Development Economics, 127, 13-24, 2017
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • D19 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Other
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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