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Forecasting labour shortages in the Australian economy

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  • Janine Dixon

Abstract

Labour shortages have the potential to hamper the ability of the economy to produce the combination of goods and services desired by population. Labour shortages are typically quantified though analysis of the number and duration of job vacancies, and surveys of employers. Here we use an economy-wide model of the Australian economy to forecast labour shortages over the next two years. Labour shortages are indicated in the model results by occupations with strong wage growth, which suggests that shortages would develop in these occupations at the current wage. Most occupations anticipated by the model results to be in shortage by 2024 require vocational education, while occupations in strong supply tend to require higher education. Leading up to the 2022 Australian Jobs and Skills Summit this suggests an important role for the VET sector in training the workers required to avoid labour shortages.

Suggested Citation

  • Janine Dixon, 2022. "Forecasting labour shortages in the Australian economy," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-332, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-332
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. G.A.Meagher & Felicity Pang, 2011. "Labour Market Forecasting, Reliability and Workforce Development," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-225, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Labour shortage; Skills shortage; Dynamic CGE modelling; Australian labour market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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