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China’s Economic Cycles: Characteristics and Determinant Factors

In: Business Cycles in BRICS

Author

Listed:
  • Junli Zhao

    (China Economic Monitoring and Analysis Center, National Bureau of Statistics of People’s Republic of China)

  • Degang Jia

    (China Economic Monitoring and Analysis Center, National Bureau of Statistics of People’s Republic of China)

  • Wei Chang

    (China Economic Monitoring and Analysis Center, National Bureau of Statistics of People’s Republic of China)

Abstract

This article uses the “trough-to-trough method” to identify ten economic cycles in China since 1953 and introduces the main characteristics of the periodic evolutions, such as from classical cycle to growth rate cycle, the cycle duration increased, the cycle position lifted up, nonperiodical fluctuations became less volatile, and the period of expansion extended. The authors also analyze the influencing factors of the cycle evolution, including economic system reform, economic structure improvement, investment fluctuation, consumption fluctuation, and the fluctuation of foreign demand. External shocks have a certain influence as well, and macroeconomic policies also play a role in shaping the cycles.

Suggested Citation

  • Junli Zhao & Degang Jia & Wei Chang, 2019. "China’s Economic Cycles: Characteristics and Determinant Factors," Societies and Political Orders in Transition, in: Sergey Smirnov & Ataman Ozyildirim & Paulo Picchetti (ed.), Business Cycles in BRICS, pages 175-184, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:socchp:978-3-319-90017-9_9
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-90017-9_9
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    Cited by:

    1. Quintero Otero, Jorge David & Padilla Sierra, Alcides de Jesús, 2024. "Impacto de la sincronización sub-nacional sobre el comportamiento de los ciclos nacionales en economías emergentes con inflación objetivo," Documentos Departamento de Economía 54, Universidad del Norte.

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