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Closing wells; fossil exploration and abandonment in the energy transition

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  • van den Bijgaart, I
  • Rodríguez, M

Abstract

Despite ambitious climate goals and already substantial stocks of developed fossil energy reserves, development of new fossil energy reserves continues to be high. This raises concerns, as it reinforces the fossil industry’s opportunities and incentives to continue extraction, and may necessitate abandonment of developed fossil reserves to meet climate targets. In this paper, we analyze the energy transition, considering fossil exploration and development activities. We provide conditions for when the fossil industry will abandon reserves, and establish that continued exploration of fossil resources is not incompatible with abandoning developed reserves. The first-best implementation of a carbon budget always involves reserve abandonment, and thus exploration that pushes developed reservesin excess of the remaining budget. A quantitative assessment reveals that a volume equal to 9-19% of current oil and gas reserves are optimally abandoned, and that, even under a 1.5◦C warming target, positive exploration of new reserves is justified for another decade.

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  • van den Bijgaart, I & Rodríguez, M, 2020. "Closing wells; fossil exploration and abandonment in the energy transition," Documentos de Trabajo 18249, Universidad del Rosario.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000092:018249
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    1. Cardenas, J. C. & Jaramillo, F & León, D & López, M. & Rodríguez, M & Zuleta, H, 2021. "With a little help from my friends: Debt Renegotiation and Climate Change," Documentos de Trabajo 19732, Universidad del Rosario.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    carbon budget; energy transition; fossil exploration; nonrenewable resources; renewableenergy; stranded assets.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q21 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q35 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Hydrocarbon Resources
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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