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Analysis of Sovereign Risk Market Indicators: The Case of the Czech Republic

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Abstract

In this article we discuss the credit default swap (CDS) as an indicator for measuring sovereign credit risk and the relationship between the sovereign CDS market and government bond market. We analyze the links between the sovereign CDS and sovereign yield spread and try to determine which of these markets is the leading one in the price discovery process in the case of the Czech Republic. We then apply quantile analysis to sovereign CDS spreads to demonstrate the cross-country spillover effects. The results of the first analysis suggest that movements in the Czech sovereign CDS spread preceded movements in the sovereign yield spread during the global crisis. The results of the second analysis indicate that the shock arising from the current debt crisis was transmitted to the Czech sovereign credit premium, although the fundamental or market factors driving its level dominated. The results of the Czech case are compared to selected European countries with different sovereign risks.

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  • Zlatuse Komarkova & Jitka Lesanovska & Lubos Komarek, 2013. "Analysis of Sovereign Risk Market Indicators: The Case of the Czech Republic," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 63(1), pages 5-24, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:63:y:2013:i:1:p:5-24
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    1. repec:cnb:ocpubc:fsr1617/3 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Agata Kliber, 2014. "The Dynamics of Sovereign Credit Default Swaps and the Evolution of the Financial Crisis in Selected Central European Economies," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 64(4), pages 330-350, September.
    3. Michal Dvorák & Zlatuše Komárková & Adam Kucera, 2019. "The Czech Government Yield Curve Decomposition at the Lower Bound," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 69(1), pages 2-36, February.
    4. Kliber, Agata & Płuciennik, Piotr, 2017. "Euro or not? Vulnerability of Czech and Slovak economies to regional and international turmoil," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 313-323.
    5. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb13/1 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb13/2 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb12/1 is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    contagion; sovereign risk; CDS;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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