IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cla/uclawp/387.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Time Series Model of Housing Investment in the U.S

Author

Listed:
  • Robert Topel

    (UCLA)

  • Sherwin Rosen

    (University of Chicago)

Abstract

A decentralized market theory of investment based on rising supply price is formulated and explained. Asset prices embody all available information in a competitive market and serve as "sufficient statistics" for future market conditions. Construction is determined myopically by marginal cost pricing: rising supply price constrains aggregate investment. Market dynamics imply that anticipated pulses in demand and interest rates lead to "bubbles" in prices, rentals and construction, because it pays to "build ahead of demand" in the presence of rising supply price. This model, similar to q-theory, assumes that long and short run elasticities of supply are identical. Short-run supply is less elastic than long-run supply when internal adjustment costs are superimposed on rising supply price. Then the current construction decision is no longer myopic and current price (or current q) is no longer sufficient for investment. Instead, builders must anticipate the future path of asset prices for current construction decisions. This enriched model is estimated under the hypothesis of rational expectations. The short-run elasticity is found to be 1.0 inquarterly data. The long-run elasticity is 3.0. The long-run is achieved within one year, indicating substantial built-in flexibility in the industry to accomodate great volatility in housing construction. Elastic supply helps account for the large fluctuations in output and employment observed in this industry. The data also show that prices alone do not clear the market. Other nonprice dimensions, including expected time-to-sale and overall transactions volume play independent roles which remain to be explained.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Topel & Sherwin Rosen, 1985. "A Time Series Model of Housing Investment in the U.S," UCLA Economics Working Papers 387, UCLA Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:cla:uclawp:387
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.econ.ucla.edu/workingpapers/wp387.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    2. James M. Poterba, 1983. "Tax Subsidies to Owner-occupied Housing: An Asset Market Approach," Working papers 339, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    3. Judd, Kenneth L, 1985. "Short-run Analysis of Fiscal Policy in a Simple Perfect Foresight Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 298-319, April.
    4. Kearl, J R, 1979. "Inflation, Mortgages, and Housing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 1115-1138, October.
    5. repec:bla:econom:v:44:y:1977:i:174:p:163-78 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Barro, Robert J & Sahasakul, Chaipat, 1983. "Measuring the Average Marginal Tax Rate from the Individual Income Tax," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(4), pages 419-452, October.
    7. Engle, Robert F & Foley, Duncan K, 1975. "An Asset Price Model of Aggregate Investment," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 16(3), pages 625-647, October.
    8. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 1980. "Formulating and estimating dynamic linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 7-46, May.
    9. Zellner, Arnold & Palm, Franz, 1974. "Time series analysis and simultaneous equation econometric models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 17-54, May.
    10. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
    11. Robert H. Topel & Michael P. Ward, 1992. "Job Mobility and the Careers of Young Men," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 439-479.
    12. Martin Feldstein, 1983. "Inflation, Tax Rules, and the Accumulation of Residential and Nonresidential Capital," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation, Tax Rules, and Capital Formation, pages 81-100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average q: A Neoclassical Interpretation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 213-224, January.
    14. Rosen, Harvey S & Rosen, Kenneth T & Holtz-Eakin, Douglas, 1984. "Housing Tenure, Uncertainty, and Taxation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 66(3), pages 405-416, August.
    15. Murphy, Kevin M & Topel, Robert H, 2002. "Estimation and Inference in Two-Step Econometric Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 88-97, January.
    16. Benhabib, Jess & Nishimura, Kazuo, 1979. "On the Uniqueness of Steady States in an Economy with Heterogeneous Capital Goods," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 20(1), pages 59-82, February.
    17. Fama, Eugene F. & Gibbons, Michael R., 1982. "Inflation, real returns and capital investment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 297-323.
    18. Barro, Robert J. & Sahasakul, Chaipat, 1983. "Measuring the Average Marginal Tax Rates from Social Security and the Individual Income Tax," Working Papers 29, The University of Chicago Booth School of Business, George J. Stigler Center for the Study of the Economy and the State.
    19. repec:bla:scandj:v:84:y:1982:i:2:p:293-311 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Lawrence H. Summers, 1981. "Taxation and Corporate Investment: A q-Theory Approach," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(1), pages 67-140.
    21. J. P. Gould, 1968. "Adjustment Costs in the Theory of Investment of the Firm," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 35(1), pages 47-55.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tryphon Kollintzas, 1986. "Tax Policy under Nongeometric Physical Depreciation," Public Finance Review, , vol. 14(3), pages 263-288, July.
    2. Matthew D. Shapiro, 1986. "The Dynamic Demand for Capital and Labor," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(3), pages 513-542.
    3. Jacques Mairesse & Bronwyn H. Hall & Benoît Mulkay, 1999. "Firm-Level Investment in France and the United States: An Exploration of What We Have Learned in Twenty Years," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 55-56, pages 27-67.
    4. O’Connor, Matthew & Rafferty, Matthew & Sheikh, Aamer, 2013. "Equity compensation and the sensitivity of research and development to financial market frictions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2510-2519.
    5. Kilponen, Juha & Verona, Fabio, 2016. "Testing the Q theory of investment in the frequency domain," Research Discussion Papers 32/2016, Bank of Finland.
    6. Warwick J McKibbin & Peter J Wilcoxen, 1997. "Macroeconomic Volatility In General Equilibrium," Departmental Working Papers 1998-07, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics, revised Jun 1998.
    7. Oksanen, Olli-Pekka, 2006. "Are Foreign Investments Replacing Domestic Investments? - Evidence from Finnish Manufacturing," Discussion Papers 1001, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    8. Hansen, Sten, 1999. "Agency Costs, Credit Constraints and Corporate Investment," Working Paper Series 79, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    9. Timothy Erickson & Toni M. Whited, 2006. "On the Accuracy of Different Measures of Q," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 35(3), Autumn.
    10. M. Ishaq Nadiri & Ingmar Prucha, 2001. "Dynamic Factor Demand Models and Productivity Analysis," NBER Chapters, in: New Developments in Productivity Analysis, pages 103-172, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Laeven, Luc, 2000. "Does financial liberalization relax financing constraints on firms ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2467, The World Bank.
    12. Sarantis Kalyvitis, 2006. "Another look at the linear q model: an empirical analysis of aggregate business capital spending with maintenance expenditures," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(4), pages 1282-1315, November.
    13. Wei Jin, 2012. "Can Technological Innovation Help China Take on Its Climate Responsibility? A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," CAMA Working Papers 2012-51, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    14. Robert S. Chirinko, 1987. "Intertemporal Constraints, Shadow Prices, and Financial Asset Values," NBER Working Papers 2247, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2016_032 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1983. "Dividend taxes, corporate investment, and `Q'," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 135-167, November.
    17. Shaukat, Badiea & Zhu, Qigui & Khan, M. Ijaz, 2019. "Real interest rate and economic growth: A statistical exploration for transitory economies," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 534(C).
    18. DUFOUR, Jean-Marie & JASIAK, Joanna, 1998. "Finite-Sample Inference Methods for Simultaneous Equations and Models with Unobserved and Generated Regressors," Cahiers de recherche 9812, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    19. Jean-Bernard Chatelain, 2002. "Structural modelling of investment and financial constraints: Where do we stand?," Working Paper Research 28, National Bank of Belgium.
    20. Lewe, Stefan, 2003. "Wachstumseffiziente Unternehmensbesteuerung," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 20042, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    21. Chafik, Omar, 2021. "Impôt sur les sociétés et investissement : quel lien au Maroc ?," Document de travail 2021-4, Bank Al-Maghrib, Département de la Recherche.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cla:uclawp:387. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: David K. Levine (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.econ.ucla.edu/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.