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The New Fama Puzzle

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  • Matthieu Bussiere
  • Menzie D. Chinn
  • Laurent Ferrara
  • Jonas Heipertz

Abstract

We re-examine the historically common finding that ex post depreciation and the forward premium are negatively correlated, termed the forward premium puzzle. When covered interest differentials are zero, this finding is equivalent to the rejection of the joint hypothesis of uncovered interest parity (UIP) and full information rational expectations. We term this result the Fama puzzle (1984), given the difficulty in identifying a time-varying risk premium that could rationalize this result. In our analysis, the rejection occurs for eight exchange rates against the US dollar, but does not survive into the period during and in the decade after the financial crisis. Strikingly, in contrast to earlier findings, the Fama coefficient – the coefficient on the interest differential – then becomes large and positive; this is what we term the New Fama Puzzle. Using survey based measures of exchange rate expectations, we find much more constant evidence in favor of UIP. Hence, the explanation for the switch in the Fama coefficient in the wake of the global financial crisis is mostly a change in how expectations errors and interest differentials co-move.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthieu Bussiere & Menzie D. Chinn & Laurent Ferrara & Jonas Heipertz, 2018. "The New Fama Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 24342, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24342
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    • Matthieu Bussière & Menzie Chinn & Laurent Ferrara & Jonas Heipertz, 2022. "The New Fama Puzzle," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(3), pages 451-486, September.

    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wang, Wenhao & Lin, Zhitao & Hu, Bing, 2023. "Macro news effects on exchange rates: Difference between carry trade target and safe-haven currencies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    2. Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2021. "Puzzling exchange rate dynamics and delayed portfolio adjustment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    3. Engel, Charles & Lee, Dohyeon & Liu, Chang & Liu, Chenxin & Wu, Steve Pak Yeung, 2019. "The uncovered interest parity puzzle, exchange rate forecasting, and Taylor rules," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 317-331.
    4. Craig Burnside & Mario Cerrato & Zhekai Zhang, 2018. "Foreign exchange order fl ow as a risk factor," Working Papers 2018_04, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    5. Engel, Charles & Wu, Steve Pak Yeung, 2023. "Forecasting the U.S. Dollar in the 21st Century," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    6. Engel, Charles & Kazakova, Katya & Wang, Mengqi & Xiang, Nan, 2022. "A reconsideration of the failure of uncovered interest parity for the U.S. dollar," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    7. Marek A. Dąbrowski & Jakub Janus, 2024. "Does the Interest Parity Puzzle Hold for Central and Eastern European Economies?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 421-456, July.
    8. Giancarlo Corsetti & Emile A. Marin, 2020. "A century of arbitrage and disaster risk pricing in the foreign exchange market," Discussion Papers 2018, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    9. Nelson R. Ramírez-Rondán & Marco E. Terrones, 2024. "Uncertainty and the uncovered interest parity condition: How are they related?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 160(4), pages 1505-1542, November.
    10. Lloyd, S. P. & Marin, E. A., 2019. "Exchange Rate Risk and Business Cycles," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1996, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    11. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Liliana Varela, 2019. "Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Disconnect: The Role of Capital Flows, Currency Risk and Default Risk," 2019 Meeting Papers 351, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Laurent Ferrara & Joseph Yapi, 2022. "Measuring exchange rate risks during periods of uncertainty," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 170, pages 202-212.
    13. Kumar, Satish, 2019. "Does risk premium help uncover the uncovered interest parity failure?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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