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Uncovered interest parity, forward guidance and the exchange rate

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Abstract

Under uncovered interest parity (UIP), the size of the e¤ect on the real exchange rate of an anticipated change in real interest rate di¤erentials is invariant to the horizon at which the change is expected. Empirical evidence using US, euro area and UK data points to a substantial deviation from that invariance prediction: expectations of interest rate di¤erentials in the near (distant) future are shown to have much larger (smaller) e¤ects on the real exchange rate than is implied by UIP. Some possible explanations are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Jordi Galí, 2017. "Uncovered interest parity, forward guidance and the exchange rate," Economics Working Papers 1600, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Feb 2020.
    • Handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:1600
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    Cited by:

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    2. Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2021. "Puzzling exchange rate dynamics and delayed portfolio adjustment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    3. Gürkaynak, Refet S. & Kara, A. Hakan & Kısacıkoğlu, Burçin & Lee, Sang Seok, 2021. "Monetary policy surprises and exchange rate behavior," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    4. Dong, Xue & Minford, Patrick & Meenagh, David & Yang, Xiaoliang, 2023. "Bounded rational expectation: How it can affect the effectiveness of monetary rules in the open economy," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    5. Coenen, Günter & Montes-Galdón, Carlos & Saint Guilhem, Arthur & Hutchinson, John & Motto, Roberto, 2022. "Rate forward guidance in an environment of large central bank balance sheets: a Eurosystem stock-taking assessment," Occasional Paper Series 290, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    forward guidance puzzle; uncovered interest rate parity; unconventional monetary policies; open economy New Keynesian model.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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