IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/chf/rpseri/rp1207.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Exchange Rate Effect of Multi-Currency Risk Arbitrage

Author

Listed:
  • Harald Hau

    (University of Geneva, Swiss Finance Institute, Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), and CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute))

Abstract

This paper (i) proposes a simple multi-currency model of speculative foreign exchange (FX) trading, (ii) uses a natural experiment to identify the implied components of the optimal trading strategy, and (iii) proposes a new spectral inference method to strengthen the statistical evidence on the predicted shortrun exchange rate dynamics. Cross-sectional currency hedging effects are shown to be qualitatively large in their price impact and can contribute to the disconnect between exchange rates and fundamentals.

Suggested Citation

  • Harald Hau, 2012. "The Exchange Rate Effect of Multi-Currency Risk Arbitrage," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 12-07, Swiss Finance Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp1207
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2006483
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bjonnes, Geir Hoidal & Rime, Dagfinn, 2005. "Dealer behavior and trading systems in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 571-605, March.
    2. Dimitri Vayanos & Jean‐Luc Vila, 2021. "A Preferred‐Habitat Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(1), pages 77-112, January.
    3. Harald Hau & Hélène Rey, 2004. "Can Portfolio Rebalancing Explain the Dynamics of Equity Returns, Equity Flows, and Exchange Rates?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 126-133, May.
    4. Antti Petajisto, 2004. "Why Do Demand Curves for Stocks Slope Down?," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2458, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Sep 2008.
    5. Joseph Chen & Samuel Hanson & Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 2008. "Do Hedge Funds Profit From Mutual-Fund Distress?," NBER Working Papers 13786, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. McCallum, Bennett T., 1994. "A reconsideration of the uncovered interest parity relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 105-132, February.
    7. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart, 2009. "Capital Flow Bonanzas: An Encompassing View of the Past and Present," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 5(1), pages 9-62.
    8. Grilli, Vittorio & Roubini, Nouriel, 1992. "Liquidity and exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3-4), pages 339-352, May.
    9. Lasse Heje Pedersen & Mark Mitchell & Todd Pulvino, 2007. "Slow Moving Capital," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 215-220, May.
    10. Edison, H.J., 1993. "The Effectiveness of Central-Bank Intervention: A Survey of the Litterature after 1982," Princeton Studies in International Economics 18, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
    11. Greenwood, Robin, 2005. "Short- and long-term demand curves for stocks: theory and evidence on the dynamics of arbitrage," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 607-649, March.
    12. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "How is Macro News Transmitted to Exchange Rates?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 14, pages 547-596, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    13. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2009. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(6), pages 2201-2238, June.
    14. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2003. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 38-62, March.
    15. Harris, Lawrence E & Gurel, Eitan, 1986. "Price and Volume Effects Associated with Changes in the S&P 500 List: New Evidence for the Existence of Price Pressures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(4), pages 815-829, September.
    16. Kenneth S. Rogoff & Vania Stavrakeva, 2008. "The Continuing Puzzle of Short Horizon Exchange Rate Forecasting," NBER Working Papers 14071, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Anna Pavlova & Roberto Rigobon, 2007. "Asset Prices and Exchange Rates," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(4), pages 1139-1180.
    18. Payne, Richard & Vitale, Paolo, 2003. "A transaction level study of the effects of central bank intervention on exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 331-352, December.
    19. Harald Hau, 2011. "Global versus Local Asset Pricing: A New Test of Market Integration," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(12), pages 3891-3940.
    20. Aditya Kaul & Vikas Mehrotra & Randall Morck, 2000. "Demand Curves for Stocks Do Slope Down: New Evidence from an Index Weights Adjustment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 893-912, April.
    21. Nicolae Garleanu & Lasse Heje Pedersen & Allen M. Poteshman, 2009. "Demand-Based Option Pricing," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(10), pages 4259-4299, October.
    22. Schlagenhauf, Don E. & Wrase, Jeffrey M., 1995. "Liquidity and real activity in a simple open economy model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 431-461, June.
    23. Harald Hau & Massimo Massa & Joel Peress, 2010. "Do Demand Curves for Currencies Slope Down? Evidence from the MSCI Global Index Change," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(4), pages 1681-1717, April.
    24. Shleifer, Andrei, 1986. "Do Demand Curves for Stocks Slope Down?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 579-590, July.
    25. Joshua V. Rosenberg & Leah G. Traub, 2006. "Price discovery in the foreign currency futures and spot market," Staff Reports 262, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    26. Petajisto, Antti, 2009. "Why Do Demand Curves for Stocks Slope Down?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(5), pages 1013-1044, October.
    27. Kenneth A. Froot & Tarun Ramadorai, 2005. "Currency Returns, Intrinsic Value, and Institutional‐Investor Flows," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1535-1566, June.
    28. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Informational Integration and FX Trading," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 7, pages 291-324, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    29. Froot, Kenneth A. & O'Connell, Paul G. J. & Seasholes, Mark S., 2001. "The portfolio flows of international investors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 151-193, February.
    30. Engle, Robert F, 1974. "Band Spectrum Regression," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, February.
    31. Rey, Hélène & Hau, Harald, 2008. "Global Portfolio Rebalancing Under the Microscope," CEPR Discussion Papers 6901, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    32. Robin Greenwood & Dimitri Vayanos, 2010. "Price Pressure in the Government Bond Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 585-590, May.
    33. Lynch, Anthony W & Mendenhall, Richard R, 1997. "New Evidence on Stock Price Effects Associated with Changes in the S&P 500 Index," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 70(3), pages 351-383, July.
    34. Jylhä, Petri & Suominen, Matti, 2011. "Speculative capital and currency carry trades," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 60-75, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fatum, Rasmus & Yamamoto, Yohei & Zhu, Guozhong, 2017. "Is the Renminbi a safe haven?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 189-202.
    2. Naveed, Hafiz Muhammad & HongXing, Yao & Memon, Bilal Ahmed & Ali, Shoaib & Alhussam, Mohammed Ismail & Sohu, Jan Muhammad, 2023. "Artificial neural network (ANN)-based estimation of the influence of COVID-19 pandemic on dynamic and emerging financial markets," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    3. Broner, Fernando & Martin, Alberto & Pandolfi, Lorenzo & Williams, Tomas, 2021. "Winners and losers from sovereign debt inflows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    4. David Gray, 2014. "Central European foreign exchange markets: a cross-spectral analysis of the 2007 financial crisis," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(6), pages 550-567, June.
    5. Du, Jiangze & Wang, Jying-Nan & Hsu, Yuan-Teng & Lai, Kin Keung, 2018. "The importance of hedging currency risk: Evidence from CNY and CNH," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 81-92.
    6. Xin Yang & Shigang Wen & Zhifeng Liu & Cai Li & Chuangxia Huang, 2019. "Dynamic Properties of Foreign Exchange Complex Network," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 7(9), pages 1-19, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Broner, Fernando & Martin, Alberto & Pandolfi, Lorenzo & Williams, Tomas, 2021. "Winners and losers from sovereign debt inflows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    3. Pandolfi, Lorenzo & Williams, Tomas, 2019. "Capital flows and sovereign debt markets: Evidence from index rebalancings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 384-403.
    4. Calvet, Laurent E. & Betermier, Sebastien & Jo, Evan, 2019. "A Supply and Demand Approach to Equity Pricing," CEPR Discussion Papers 13974, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. King, Michael R. & Osler, Carol L. & Rime, Dagfinn, 2013. "The market microstructure approach to foreign exchange: Looking back and looking forward," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 95-119.
    6. Atanasov, Vladimir & Merrick, John, 2011. "Financial asset demand is elastic: Evidence from new issues of Federal Home Loan Bank debt," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 3225-3239.
    7. Nina Karnaukh & Angelo Ranaldo & Paul Söderlind, 2015. "Understanding FX Liquidity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(11), pages 3073-3108.
    8. Chen, Haiwei & Ngo, Thanh, 2017. "Leverage-based index revisions: The case of Dow Jones Islamic Market World Index," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 16-34.
    9. Harald Hau & Massimo Massa & Joel Peress, 2010. "Do Demand Curves for Currencies Slope Down? Evidence from the MSCI Global Index Change," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(4), pages 1681-1717, April.
    10. Robin Greenwood & Toomas Laarits & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2022. "Stock Market Stimulus," NBER Working Papers 29827, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Hacıbedel, Burcu, 2014. "Does investor recognition matter for asset pricing?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 1-20.
    12. Hongfei Tang & Kangzhen Xie & Xiaoqing Eleanor Xu, 2022. "Real estate as a new equity market sector: Market responses and return comovement," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 50(2), pages 431-467, June.
    13. Moretti,Matías & Pandolfi,Lorenzo & Schmukler,Sergio L. & Villegas Bauer,Germán & Williams,Tomás, 2024. "Inelastic Demand Meets Optimal Supply of Risky Sovereign Bonds," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10735, The World Bank.
    14. Hung, Chung-Wen & Shiu, Cheng-Yi, 2016. "Trader activities, ownership, and stock price reactions to MSCI standard index changes: Evidence from Taiwan," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 49-63.
    15. repec:ibf:ijbfre:v:11:y:2017:i:2:p:39-56 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Jung-Wook Kim & Jason Lee & Randall Morck, 2009. "Characteristics of Observed Limit Order Demand and Supply Schedules for Individual Stocks," NBER Working Papers 14733, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Robin Greenwood & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2018. "The Impact of Pensions and Insurance on Global Yield Curves," Harvard Business School Working Papers 18-109, Harvard Business School, revised Dec 2018.
    18. Tseng, Yun-lan & Pan, Ging-ginq, 2024. "Do anticipated changes in the MSCI Taiwan index drive investor behavior?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 563-580.
    19. Vitale, Paolo, 2006. "A market microstructure analysis of foreign exchange intervention," Working Paper Series 629, European Central Bank.
    20. Greenwood, Robin & Thesmar, David, 2011. "Stock price fragility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(3), pages 471-490.
    21. Engel, Charles, 2014. "Exchange Rates and Interest Parity," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 453-522, Elsevier.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Speculation; Limited Arbitrage; Hedging; Exchange Rate Disconnect;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp1207. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ridima Mittal (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fameech.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.