Punishing or Rallying ‘Round the Flag? Heterogeneous Effects of Terrorism in South Tyrol

This paper studies heterogeneous electoral responses following terrorist attacks. I examine a rich panel data set containing detailed information on the geography of terrorism in South Tyrol, a Northernmost and predominantly German-speaking region of Italy, for a period spanning along 35 years. Exploiting the diverse nature of 337 attacks, I find that the Italian-speaking minority reacted to an increase in exposure to terrorist attacks by punishing the government party at the ballot box and supporting an extreme right-wing party. However, when terror prompted casualties, I find that more exposure was conducive of rally-round-the-flag momenta. I interpret these results in light of recent findings in social psychology on heterogeneous emotional reactions induced by terrorist attacks. My results inform the literature as well as the public debate on the diverse implications of terrorism.