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Africa's Growth Prospects in a European mirror: a Historical Perspective

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  • Broadberry, Stephen

    (London School of Economics and CAGE)

  • Gardner, Leigh

    (London School of Economics)

Abstract

Drawing on recent quantitative research on Europe reaching back to the medieval period, and noting a relationship between the quality of institutions and economic growth, this paper offers a reassessment of Africa’s growth prospects. Periods of positive growth driven by trade, followed by growth reversals which wiped out the gains of the previous boom, characterized pre-modern Europe as well as twentieth century Africa. Since per capita incomes in much of sub-Saharan Africa are currently at the level of medieval Europe, which did not make the breakthrough tomodern economic growth until the nineteenth century, we caution against too optimistic a reading of Africa’s recent growth experience. Without the institutionalchanges necessary to facilitate structural change, growth reversals continue to pose a serious threat to African prosperity. Only if growth continues after a downturn in Africa’s terms of trade can we be sure that the corner has been turned.

Suggested Citation

  • Broadberry, Stephen & Gardner, Leigh, 2013. "Africa's Growth Prospects in a European mirror: a Historical Perspective," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 172, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    • Handle: RePEc:cge:wacage:172
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Naudé, Wim, 2017. "Entrepreneurship, Education and the Fourth Industrial Revolution in Africa," IZA Discussion Papers 10855, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Alka Jauhari, 2018. "African Economic Renaissance: A Case Study of Rwanda and Angola," Insight on Africa, , vol. 10(2), pages 127-149, July.
    4. McDermott,Thomas K.J., 2016. "Investing in disaster risk management in an uncertain climate," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7631, The World Bank.
    5. Bhorat, Haroon & Chelwa, Grieve & Naidoo, Karmen & Stanwix, Benjamin, 2017. "Income Inequality Trends in sub-Saharan Africa: Divergence, determinants and consequences: Resource Dependence and Inequality in Africa: Impacts, consequences and potential solutions," UNDP Africa Reports 267645, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
    6. repec:rac:ecchap:2017-07 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. EZZAHIDI, Elhadj & El Alaoui, Aicha, 2015. "Determinants of the recent growth surge in Africa: what changed since mid-1990s?," MPRA Paper 67792, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. UNDP Regional Bureau for Africa & Haroon Bhorat & Grieve Chelwa & Karmen Naidoo & Benjamin Stanwix, "undated". "Resource Dependence and Inequality in Africa: Impacts, consequences and potential solutions," UNDP Africa Policy Notes 2017-07, United Nations Development Programme, Regional Bureau for Africa.

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    Keywords

    Africa; Growth prospects.;

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