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Short-Run and Long-Run Effects of Sizable Child Subsidy: Evidence from Russia

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  • Ilia Sorvachev

    (Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison)

  • Evgeny Yakovlev

    (New Economic School)

Abstract

This paper utilizes a large-scale natural experiment aimed to increase fertility in Russia. Motivated by a decade-long decrease in fertility and population, the Russian government introduced a sequence of sizable child subsidies (called Maternity Capitals) in 2007 and 2012. We find that the Maternity Capital resulted in a significant increase in fertility both in the short run (by 8%) and in the long run (by 20%), and has already resulted in an increase in completed cohort fertility for a large cohort of Russian women. The subsidy is conditional and can be used mainly to buy housing. We find that fertility grew faster in regions with a shortage of housing and with a higher ratio of subsidy to housing prices. We also find that the subsidy has a substantial general equilibrium effect. It affected the housing market and family stability. Finally, we show that this government intervention comes at substantial costs: the government's willingness to pay for an additional birth induced by the program equals approximately 50,000 dollars.

Suggested Citation

  • Ilia Sorvachev & Evgeny Yakovlev, 2019. "Short-Run and Long-Run Effects of Sizable Child Subsidy: Evidence from Russia," Working Papers w0254, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
    • Handle: RePEc:cfr:cefirw:w0254
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