IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cfm/wpaper/2120.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A back-of-the-envelope analysis of house prices: Czech Republic, 2013-2021

Author

Listed:
  • Roman Sustek

    (Queen Mary University of London
    Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM))

Abstract

Building on Garriga, Kydland, and Sustek (2017), a simple practical method for quantitative analysis of house prices is proposed. Similar to consumer theory, housing demand is approximately decomposed into changes in income and a relative price. The latter includes implicit costs of mortgage finance, determined by monetary and macroprudential policies and future income growth and inflation expectations. To demonstrate the method, I apply it to the 63% increase in real house prices in Czechia, 2013-2021. The income effect accounts for 32% of the increase, implicit mortgage costs for another 20%. Most of the latter hinges on income growth expectations, reflecting the robust 2013-2020 economic recovery.

Suggested Citation

  • Roman Sustek, 2021. "A back-of-the-envelope analysis of house prices: Czech Republic, 2013-2021," Discussion Papers 2120, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    • Handle: RePEc:cfm:wpaper:2120
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.lse.ac.uk/CFM/assets/pdf/CFM-Discussion-Papers-2021/CFMDP2021-20-Paper.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jan Čadil, 2009. "Housing price bubble analysis - case of the Czech republic," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2009(1), pages 38-47.
    2. Piazzesi, M. & Schneider, M., 2016. "Housing and Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1547-1640, Elsevier.
    3. Paul Gomme & B. Ravikumar & Peter Rupert, 2011. "The Return to Capital and the Business Cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(2), pages 262-278, April.
    4. Guerrieri, V. & Uhlig, H., 2016. "Housing and Credit Markets," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1427-1496, Elsevier.
    5. Jack Favilukis & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2017. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Housing Wealth, Housing Finance, and Limited Risk Sharing in General Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(1), pages 140-223.
    6. Greg Kaplan & Giovanni L. Violante & Justin Weidner, 2014. "The Wealthy Hand-to-Mouth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 45(1 (Spring), pages 77-153.
    7. John Y. Campbell & João F. Cocco, 2003. "Household Risk Management and Optimal Mortgage Choice," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(4), pages 1449-1494.
    8. Garriga, Carlos & Kydland, Finn E. & Šustek, Roman, 2021. "MoNK: Mortgages in a New-Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    9. Finn E. Kydland & Peter Rupert & Roman Šustek, 2016. "Housing Dynamics Over The Business Cycle," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57(4), pages 1149-1177, November.
    10. James Cloyne & Clodomiro Ferreira & Paolo Surico, 2020. "Monetary Policy when Households have Debt: New Evidence on the Transmission Mechanism," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 87(1), pages 102-129.
    11. Carlos Garriga & Finn E. Kydland & Roman Šustek, 2017. "Mortgages and Monetary Policy," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(10), pages 3337-3375.
    12. Martin Schneider & Monika Piazzesi, 2009. "Momentum traders in a search model of the housing market," 2009 Meeting Papers 1266, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Slacalek, Jiri & Tristani, Oreste & Violante, Giovanni L., 2020. "Household balance sheet channels of monetary policy: A back of the envelope calculation for the euro area," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    14. Matthew Chambers & Carlos Garriga & Don E. Schlagenhauf, 2009. "Accounting For Changes In The Homeownership Rate," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(3), pages 677-726, August.
    15. J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), 2016. "Handbook of Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 2, number 2.
    16. John Y. Campbell & João F. Cocco, 2015. "A Model of Mortgage Default," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(4), pages 1495-1554, August.
    17. Greg Kaplan & Kurt Mitman & Giovanni L. Violante, 2020. "The Housing Boom and Bust: Model Meets Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(9), pages 3285-3345.
    18. Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2009. "Momentum Traders in the Housing Market: Survey Evidence and a Search Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 406-411, May.
    19. Greg Kaplan & Giovanni L. Violante & Justin Weidner, 2014. "The Wealthy Hand-to-Mouth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(1 (Spring), pages 77-153.
    20. James M. Poterba, 1984. "Tax Subsidies to Owner-Occupied Housing: An Asset-Market Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 99(4), pages 729-752.
    21. Campbell, Sean D. & Davis, Morris A. & Gallin, Joshua & Martin, Robert F., 2009. "What moves housing markets: A variance decomposition of the rent-price ratio," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 90-102, September.
    22. Greg Kaplan & Giovanni L. Violante, 2014. "A Model of the Consumption Response to Fiscal Stimulus Payments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(4), pages 1199-1239, July.
    23. repec:cnb:ocpubc:tafs2019/1 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Carlos Garriga & Aaron Hedlund, 2020. "Mortgage Debt, Consumption, and Illiquid Housing Markets in the Great Recession," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(6), pages 1603-1634, June.
    25. Carlos Garriga & Rodolfo Manuelli & Adrian Peralta-Alva, 2019. "A Macroeconomic Model of Price Swings in the Housing Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(6), pages 2036-2072, June.
    26. Finn E. Kydland & Peter Rupert & Roman Šustek, 2016. "Housing Dynamics Over The Business Cycle," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57, pages 1149-1177, November.
    27. Gomme, Paul & Rupert, Peter, 2007. "Theory, measurement and calibration of macroeconomic models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 460-497, March.
    28. Marco Di Maggio & Amir Kermani & Benjamin J. Keys & Tomasz Piskorski & Rodney Ramcharan & Amit Seru & Vincent Yao, 2017. "Interest Rate Pass-Through: Mortgage Rates, Household Consumption, and Voluntary Deleveraging," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(11), pages 3550-3588, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Roman Sustek, 2022. "A Back-of-the-Envelope Analysis of House Prices: Czech Republic, 2013-2021," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp737, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    2. Leung, Charles Ka Yui & Ng, Joe Cho Yiu, 2018. "Macro Aspects of Housing," MPRA Paper 93512, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Piazzesi, M. & Schneider, M., 2016. "Housing and Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1547-1640, Elsevier.
    4. Cumming, Fergus, 2022. "Mortgage cash-flows and employment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    5. Martin Flodén & Matilda Kilström & Jósef Sigurdsson & Roine Vestman, 2021. "Household Debt and Monetary Policy: Revealing the Cash-Flow Channel," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(636), pages 1742-1771.
    6. Davis, Morris A. & Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn, 2015. "Housing, Finance, and the Macroeconomy," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 753-811, Elsevier.
    7. Leung, Charles Ka Yui, 2022. "Housing and Macroeconomics," MPRA Paper 115500, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Kasper Kragh Balke & Markus Karlman & Karin Kinnerud, 2024. "Winners and Losers from Property Taxation," Working Papers 04/2024, Centre for Household Finance and Macroeconomic Research (HOFIMAR), BI Norwegian Business School.
    9. Piskorski, Tomasz & Seru, Amit, 2021. "Debt relief and slow recovery: A decade after Lehman," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(3), pages 1036-1059.
    10. Sumit Agarwa & Yongheng Deng & Quanlin Gu & Jia He & Wenlan Qian & Yuan Ren, 2022. "Mortgage Debt, Hand-to-Mouth Households, and Monetary Policy Transmission [Policy intervention in debt renegotiation: evidence from the home affordable modification program]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 26(3), pages 487-520.
    11. Garriga, Carlos & Kydland, Finn E. & Šustek, Roman, 2021. "MoNK: Mortgages in a New-Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    12. Renzhi, Nuobu, 2023. "Household net saving positions and unconventional monetary policy transmission: Evidence from Japan," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    13. Carlos Garriga & Aaron Hedlund, 2019. "Crises in the Housing Market: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Lessons," Working Papers 2019-33, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    14. Adrien Auclert, 2019. "Monetary Policy and the Redistribution Channel," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(6), pages 2333-2367, June.
    15. Francisco Gomes & Michael Haliassos & Tarun Ramadorai, 2021. "Household Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(3), pages 919-1000, September.
    16. Eunseong Ma & Sarah Zubairy, 2021. "Homeownership And Housing Transitions: Explaining The Demographic Composition," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 62(2), pages 599-638, May.
    17. Carlos Garriga & Finn E. Kydland & Roman Šustek, 2017. "Mortgages and Monetary Policy," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(10), pages 3337-3375.
    18. Rongsheng Tang & Yang Tang & Rongjie Zhang, 2024. "The Aggregate and Distributional Impacts of Residence Policy Relaxation," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 69(2), pages 343-376, August.
    19. Minsu Chang, 2019. "A House Without a Ring: The Role of Changing Marital Transitions for Housing Decisions," 2019 Meeting Papers 514, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    20. Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo & Arlene Wong, 2022. "State-Dependent Effects of Monetary Policy: The Refinancing Channel," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(3), pages 721-761, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    House prices; decomposition; affordability; mortgage costs; monetary and macroprudential policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G59 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Other
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cfm:wpaper:2120. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Helen Power (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cmlseuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.