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Mortgage Debt, Hand-to-Mouth Households, and Monetary Policy Transmission
[Policy intervention in debt renegotiation: evidence from the home affordable modification program]

Author

Listed:
  • Sumit Agarwa
  • Yongheng Deng
  • Quanlin Gu
  • Jia He
  • Wenlan Qian
  • Yuan Ren

Abstract

Using a representative sample of credit card holders from a leading Chinese commercial bank, we investigate how consumers respond to an unexpected interest rate decrease that automatically reduces interest expenses for all mortgage borrowers in the country and thereby generates significant positive disposable-income shocks. Our difference-in-differences analysis shows that compared with homeowners without mortgage obligations, mortgage borrowers increased their monthly credit card spending by 8.7% after the 230-bps mortgage rate reduction announced in September 2008. We find a significant spending response both immediately after the announcement and during the post-reset period. The credit card delinquency rate also decreased after the mortgage rate reset. Subsequent to an interest-rate increase episode, mortgage borrowers symmetrically reduced their credit card spending. Hand-to-mouth mortgage borrowers experienced a more pronounced spending increase. The debt-service channel plays an important role in transmitting monetary policy—our estimate implies a marginal propensity to consume 0.40–0.54 through credit card spending.

Suggested Citation

  • Sumit Agarwa & Yongheng Deng & Quanlin Gu & Jia He & Wenlan Qian & Yuan Ren, 2022. "Mortgage Debt, Hand-to-Mouth Households, and Monetary Policy Transmission [Policy intervention in debt renegotiation: evidence from the home affordable modification program]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 26(3), pages 487-520.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:revfin:v:26:y:2022:i:3:p:487-520.
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    Cited by:

    1. Itamar Caspi & Nadav Eshel & Nimrod Segev, 2024. "The Mortgage Cash-Flow Channel: How Rising Interest Rates Impact Household Consumption," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2024.13, Bank of Israel.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumption; Monetary policy; Disposable income shocks; MPC; Mortgage; Housing; Policy; Constraints; Credit access; Wealthy hand-to-mouth; Debt; Deleverage; Credit cards; Household Finance; China;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance

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