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Risky Environment: How Extreme Weather Conditions in Nigeria Lead to Harvest Failure

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  • Julius Berger

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between extreme weather conditions and the risk of flooding-induced harvest failure in Nigerian agriculture using a probit model. I use household-level survey and gridded weather data to exploit weather variation across time and space. Risk of harvest failure increases for agricultural households with more extreme weather conditions. The effect is especially pronounced for a subsample of households in high-risk areas. Overall, extreme weather conditions more than double the risk of flooding-induced harvest failure. Educational attainment acts as a resilience strategy by enabling individuals to shift into other economic sectors and actively choose a less risky location of residence. Internet access per se does not seem to have a significant impact.

Suggested Citation

  • Julius Berger, 2024. "Risky Environment: How Extreme Weather Conditions in Nigeria Lead to Harvest Failure," ifo Working Paper Series 412, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifowps:_412
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Simone Bertoli & Frédéric Docquier & Hillel Rapoport & Ilse Ruyssen, 2022. "Weather shocks and migration intentions in Western Africa: insights from a multilevel analysis [Do climate variations explain bilateral migration? A gravity model analysis]," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 22(2), pages 289-323.
    2. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2014. "What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 740-798, September.
    3. Olivier Deschênes & Michael Greenstone, 2012. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(7), pages 3761-3773, December.
    4. Raffaello Cervigni & Riccardo Valentini & Monia Santini, 2013. "Toward Climate-Resilient Development in Nigeria," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 15811.
    5. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2012. "Temperature Shocks and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 66-95, July.
    6. Simone Bertoli & Frédéric Docquier & Hillel Rapoport & Ilse Ruyssen, 2022. "Weather shocks and migration intentions in Western Africa: insights from a multilevel analysis [Do climate variations explain bilateral migration? A gravity model analysis]," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 22(2), pages 289-323.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Flooding Risk; Nigeria; Agriculture; Resilience Strategy; Education; Communication;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q12 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • I25 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Economic Development
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • N57 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries - - - Africa; Oceania

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