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The fragility of the Eurozone: Has it disappeared?

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  • De Grauwe, Paul
  • Ji, Yuemei

Abstract

We revisit the fragility of the Eurozone which arises because the sovereigns in the Eurozone issue debt in a currency (the euro) over which they have no control. This prevents them from giving a guarantee to bond holders that they will always be repaid at maturity. This fragility can trigger self-fulfilling liquidity crises, such as those that erupted during 2010–12. We document how this fragility has evolved over time and how it has been affected by the reforms in the governance of the Eurozone since the sovereign debt crisis of 2010–12. This will allow us to analyze the most recent episode that started with the emergence of the pandemic in 2020. The latter has, up to now, not led to a new debt crisis in the Eurozone, despite the fact that the shock produced by the pandemic was at least as large as the financial crisis of 2007–08. We document how during the pandemic the new governance of the Eurozone prevented this shock from leading to a new sovereign debt crisis. We end with a discussion of the prospects for the future and ask the question of whether the fragility of the Eurozone is a thing of the past.

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  • De Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei, 2022. "The fragility of the Eurozone: Has it disappeared?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:120:y:2022:i:c:s0261560621001972
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2021.102546
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    2. Jan Kakes & Jan Willem van den End, 2023. "Identifying financial fragmentation: do sovereign spreads in the EMU reflect differences in fundamentals?," Working Papers 778, DNB.
    3. Gergely Hudecz & Elisabetta Vangelista & Robert Blotevogel, 2022. "Asset purchases and sovereign risk premia in the euro area during the pandemic," Working Papers 55, European Stability Mechanism, revised 12 Sep 2022.
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    5. Karsten Kohler, 2024. "Capital Flows and the Eurozone's North-South Divide," Politics & Society, , vol. 52(2), pages 304-330, June.
    6. Roccazzella, Francesco & Candelon, Bertrand, 2022. "Should we care about ECB inflation expectations?," LIDAM Discussion Papers LFIN 2022004, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    7. Mark Diesendorf & Steven Hail, 2022. "Funding of the Energy Transition by Monetary Sovereign Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-14, August.
    8. Heimberger, Philipp, 2023. "Public debt and r-g risks in advanced economies: Eurozone versus stand-alone," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    9. Blotevogel, Robert & Hudecz, Gergely & Vangelista, Elisabetta, 2024. "Asset purchases and sovereign bond spreads in the euro area during the pandemic," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    10. Alogoskoufis, George & Gravas, Konstantinos & Jacque, Laurent, 2023. "Asymmetries in post-war monetary arrangements in Europe: From Bretton Woods to the Euro Area," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    11. Alfredo Arahuetes García & Gonzalo Gómez Bengoechea, 2022. "Back to the Future: Lessons from the 2009–2012 austerity policies for the aftermath of the COVID crisis," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 13(5), pages 751-766, November.

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