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The fragility of the Eurozone: has it disappeared?

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  • De Grauwe, Paul
  • Ji, Yuemei

Abstract

We revisit the fragility of the Eurozone which arises because the sovereigns in the Eurozone issue debt in a currency (the euro) over which they have no control. This prevents them from giving a guarantee to bond holders that they will always be repaid at maturity. This fragility can trigger self-fulfilling liquidity crises, such as those that erupted during 2010–12. We document how this fragility has evolved over time and how it has been affected by the reforms in the governance of the Eurozone since the sovereign debt crisis of 2010–12. This will allow us to analyze the most recent episode that started with the emergence of the pandemic in 2020. The latter has, up to now, not led to a new debt crisis in the Eurozone, despite the fact that the shock produced by the pandemic was at least as large as the financial crisis of 2007–08. We document how during the pandemic the new governance of the Eurozone prevented this shock from leading to a new sovereign debt crisis. We end with a discussion of the prospects for the future and ask the question of whether the fragility of the Eurozone is a thing of the past.

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  • De Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei, 2022. "The fragility of the Eurozone: has it disappeared?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 112543, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:112543
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    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/112543/
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. von Hagen, Jürgen & Schuknecht, Ludger & Wolswijk, Guido, 2011. "Government bond risk premiums in the EU revisited: The impact of the financial crisis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 36-43, March.
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    4. Paul De Grauwe & Yuemei Ji, 2015. "The Fragility of Two Monetary Regimes: The European Monetary System and the Eurozone," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(1), pages 1-15, January.
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    6. Aizenman, Joshua & Hutchison, Michael & Jinjarak, Yothin, 2013. "What is the risk of European sovereign debt defaults? Fiscal space, CDS spreads and market pricing of risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 37-59.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Blotevogel, Robert & Hudecz, Gergely & Vangelista, Elisabetta, 2024. "Asset purchases and sovereign bond spreads in the euro area during the pandemic," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    3. Wang, Xiaoting & Hou, Siyuan & Kyaw, Khine & Xue, Xupeng & Liu, Xueqin, 2023. "Exploring the determinants of Fintech Credit: A comprehensive analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    4. Philipp Heimberger, 2024. "Fiscal consolidation and its growth effects in euro area countries: Past, present and future outlook," FMM Working Paper 109-2024, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    5. Alogoskoufis, George & Gravas, Konstantinos & Jacque, Laurent, 2023. "Asymmetries in post-war monetary arrangements in Europe: From Bretton Woods to the Euro Area," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    6. Alicia Aguilar, 2024. "Beyond Fragmentation: Unraveling the Drivers of Yield Divergence in the euro area," Working and Discussion Papers WP 9/2024, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    7. Heimberger, Philipp, 2023. "Public debt and r-g risks in advanced economies: Eurozone versus stand-alone," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance

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