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Projected Increases in Hurricane Damage in the United States: The Role of Climate Change and Coastal Development

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  • Dinan, Terry

Abstract

The combined forces of climate change and coastal development are anticipated to increase hurricane damage around the globe. Estimating the magnitude of those increases is challenging due to substantial uncertainties about the amount by which climate change will alter the formation of hurricanes and increase sea levels in various locations; and the fact that future increases in property exposure are uncertain, reflecting local, regional and national trends as well as unforeseen circumstances. This paper assesses the potential increase in wind and storm surge damage caused by hurricanes making landfall in the U.S. between now and 2075 using a framework that addresses those challenges. We find that, in combination, climate change and coastal development will cause hurricane damage to increase faster than the U.S. economy is expected to grow. In addition, we find that the number of people facing substantial expected damage will, on average, increase more than eight-fold over the next 60years. Understanding the concentration of damage may be particularly important in countries that lack policies or programs to provide federal support to hard-hit localities.

Suggested Citation

  • Dinan, Terry, 2017. "Projected Increases in Hurricane Damage in the United States: The Role of Climate Change and Coastal Development," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 186-198.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:138:y:2017:i:c:p:186-198
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2017.03.034
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    2. Simandjuntak, Daniel P. & Jaenicke, Edward C. & Wrenn, Douglas H., 2022. "Heterogeneity in Consumer Food Stockpiling and Retailer Experiences During Hurricane Sandy," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322183, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
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    5. Xiaotong Sui & Mingzhao Hu & Haoyun Wang & Lingdi Zhao, 2023. "Improved elasticity estimation model for typhoon storm surge losses in China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(2), pages 2363-2381, March.
    6. Pugatch, Todd, 2019. "Tropical storms and mortality under climate change," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 172-182.
    7. Conte, Marc N. & Kelly, David L., 2018. "An imperfect storm: Fat-tailed tropical cyclone damages, insurance, and climate policy," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 677-706.
    8. Ming Li & Fan Zhang & Samuel Barnes & Xiaohong Wang, 2020. "Assessing storm surge impacts on coastal inundation due to climate change: case studies of Baltimore and Dorchester County in Maryland," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(2), pages 2561-2588, September.
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