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The Impact of Welfare Chauvinism on the Results of Right-Wing Populist Voting in Germany after the Refugee Crisis

Author

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  • Florian W. Bartholomae
  • Chang Woon Nam
  • Pierre Rafih

Abstract

Based on an extended welfare chauvinism concept that more systematically integrates the labor market and public finance aspects, this paper examines the impact of the refugee crisis − which culminated in the EU in 2015/16 − on changes in voting behavior in Germany (revealed in the two German federal elections in 2013 and 2017), explaining the attitudinal preference for ethnic boundaries around national welfare systems and the emergence of the right-wing populist party AfD. For this dynamic approach, an OLS analysis is conducted based on county-level data. The variables are selected taking into account existing theoretical and empirical findings in the international context, combined with Germany-specific facts and experiences, local demographic and economic differences, and party-specific voter characteristics. Among the key empirical findings are sufficiently reliable indications of the occurrence of welfare-chauvinistic effects that led to the success of the AfD in the 2017 election.

Suggested Citation

  • Florian W. Bartholomae & Chang Woon Nam & Pierre Rafih, 2020. "The Impact of Welfare Chauvinism on the Results of Right-Wing Populist Voting in Germany after the Refugee Crisis," CESifo Working Paper Series 8629, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8629
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Florian W. Bartholomae & Chang Woon Nam & Pierre Rafih, 2022. "Wahlerfolg der AfD und die Flüchtlingskrise: Spielen regionale Disparitäten eine Rolle? [AfD’s Electoral Success and the Refugee Crisis: Do Regional Disparities Matter?]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 102(11), pages 891-897, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    welfare chauvinism; immigration; right-wing populist party; refugee crisis; German federal elections;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

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