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Target Losses in Case of a Euro Break-up

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  • Hans-Werner Sinn

Abstract

Evaluation of the financial costs of a Eurozone breakup depends critically on the interpretation of TARGET balances. While it has been argued that TARGET claims in the Eurozone can be written off without incurring any losses on the claimants as the value of fiat money is independent of the claims of a national central bank, the present paper shows that TARGET claims represent a shift of the ECB's refinancing credit to the crisis countries and thus a claim on the interest return from the commercial banks of these countries. If TARGET claims were to be written off, a loss of real wealth would occur to the amount of the present value of this interest return, which is exactly measured by the amount of the TARGET claims.

Suggested Citation

  • Hans-Werner Sinn, 2012. "Target Losses in Case of a Euro Break-up," CESifo Working Paper Series 3968, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3968
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    1. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2012. "Target Losses in Case of a Euro Breakup," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 13(04), pages 51-58, December.
    2. Sinn, Hans-Werner & Feist, Holger, 1997. "Eurowinners and Eurolosers: The distribution of seigniorage wealth in EMU1," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 665-689, December.
    3. Hans-Werner Sinn & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2012. "Target loans, current account balances and capital flows: the ECB’s rescue facility," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 19(4), pages 468-508, August.
    4. Wilhelm Kohler, 2012. "The Eurosystem in Times of Crises: Greece in the Role of a Reserve Currency Country?," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 13(1), pages 14-22, February.
    5. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2012. "Die Target-Falle: Gefahren für unser Geld und unsere Kinder," Books, by Staff of the ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 2012001.
    6. Stefan Homburg, 2012. "Der neue Kurs der Europäischen Zentralbank," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 92(10), pages 673-677, October.
    7. Buiter, Willem & Rahbari, Ebrahim, 2012. "Target2 Redux: The simple accountancy and slightly more complex economics of Bundesbank loss exposure through the Eurosystem," CEPR Discussion Papers 9211, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    Citations

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    1. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2012. "Target Losses in Case of a Euro Breakup," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 13(04), pages 51-58, December.
    2. Moro, Beniamino, 2019. "Interpreting TARGET balances in the European Monetary Union: A critical review of the literature," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    3. Huck, Steffen & Valasek, Justin Mattias, 2012. "Institutionalizing eurozone exit: A modified NEWNEY approach," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Economics of Change SP II 2012-304, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
    4. Eichengreen, Barry & Mehl, Arnaud & Chitu, Livia & Richardson, Gary, 2015. "Mutual Assistance between Federal Reserve Banks: 1913–1960 as Prolegomena to the TARGET2 Debate," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 75(3), pages 621-659, September.
    5. Pasche, Markus, 2017. "ESBies as a Basis for a TARGET2 Settlement Mechanism," MPRA Paper 83012, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Niklas Potrafke & Markus Reischmann, 2013. "Explosive Target Balances," CESifo Working Paper Series 4297, CESifo.
    7. Kappius, Robert & Neumärker, Bernhard, 2015. "Could exit rules be self-enforcing in the EU? The cases of France and Germany," The Constitutional Economics Network Working Papers 02-2015, University of Freiburg, Department of Economic Policy and Constitutional Economic Theory.
    8. Stephen Cecchetti & Robert McCauley & Patrick McGuire, 2012. "Interpreting TARGET2 balances," BIS Working Papers 393, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. PhilippineCour-Thimann, 2013. "CESifo Forum Special Issue April 2013: Target Balances and the Crisis in the Euro Area," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 0, pages 05-50, May.
    10. Leszek Balcerowicz, 2014. "Euro Imbalances and Adjustment: A Comparative Analysis," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 34(3), pages 453-482, Fall.
    11. Heikki Oksanen, 2016. "Smoothing Asymmetric Shocks vs. Redistribution in the Euro Area: A Simple Proposal for Dealing with Mistrust in the Euro Area," CESifo Working Paper Series 5817, CESifo.
    12. Giuseppe Bertola & John Driffill & Harold James & Hans-Werner Sinn & Jan-Egbert Sturm & Ákos Valentinyi, 2013. "Chapter 4: US Precedents for Europe," EEAG Report on the European Economy, CESifo, vol. 0, pages 95-107, February.
    13. Hans-Werner Sinn & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2012. "Target-Salden und die deutsche Kapitalbilanz im Zeichen der europäischen Zahlungsbilanzkrise," ifo Working Paper Series 149, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    14. Sergio Cesaratto, 2012. "The endless eurozone crisis, where do we stand? a classical-kaleckian overview," STUDI ECONOMICI, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2012(107), pages 35-63.
    15. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2018. "Brexit a krize eura: jakou chceme Evropskou unii? [Brexit and the Euro Crisis: What Kind of Union Do We Want?]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2018(1), pages 3-19.
    16. Potrafke, Niklas & Reischmann, Markus, 2014. "Explosive Target balances of the German Bundesbank," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 439-444.
    17. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2013. "Die Target-Verluste im Fall des Auseinanderbrechens des Euro – Eine Replik auf De Grauwe und Ji," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(01), pages 14-24, January.
    18. Aitor Erce, 2014. "Cross‐Border Banking, Externalities And Sovereign Distress: Does The Euro Need A Common Banking Authority?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(3), pages 188-203, July.
    19. Adam Koronowski, 2014. "Dual Currency System as a Solution to the Eurozone Crisis," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 2, pages 5-23.
    20. Hans-Werner Sinn & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2012. "Target Balances and the German Financial Account in Light of the European Balance-of-Payments Crisis," CESifo Working Paper Series 4051, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    currency union; balance of payments; Eurosystem; Target2;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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