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Economic, Political and Institutional Determinants of Budget Deficits in the European Union

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  • Ali Bayar
  • Bram Smeets

Abstract

Using an extended data set of EU countries ranging from 1971-2006 and relevant econometric methods, we investigate the economic, political, and institutional determinants of government deficits in the EU. The results show a strong opportunistic behaviour of policymakers which leads to political business cycles. We find that political fragmentation does not play a significant role in government deficits. Partisan behaviour has a weak effect. The stability of the government has a significant negative impact on the size of the budget deficit. The paper also shows the significant effects of the Maastricht Treaty on fiscal consolidation.

Suggested Citation

  • Ali Bayar & Bram Smeets, 2009. "Economic, Political and Institutional Determinants of Budget Deficits in the European Union," CESifo Working Paper Series 2611, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2611
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    Cited by:

    1. Schönfelder, Nina & Wagner, Helmut, 2015. "The impact of European integration on institutional development," MPRA Paper 63392, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Antoine Cazals & Pierre Mandon, 2016. "Political Budget Cycles: Manipulation from Leaders or Manipulation from Researchers? Evidence from a Meta-Regression Analysis," Working Papers halshs-01320586, HAL.
    3. Glawe, Linda & Wagner, Helmut, 2021. "Convergence, divergence, or multiple steady states? New evidence on the institutional development within the European Union," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 860-884.
    4. Milan Bednař, 2019. "Political Budget Cycles in the European Union: New Evidence of Fragmentation," Acta Oeconomica, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 69(4), pages 523-547, December.
    5. Lukmanova, Elizaveta & Tondl, Gabriele, 2017. "Macroeconomic imbalances and business cycle synchronization. Why common economic governance is imperative for the Eurozone," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 130-144.
    6. Dragan Tevdovski & Petar Jolakoski & Viktor Stojkoski, 2022. "Determinants Of Budget Deficits: The Effects Of The Covid-19 Crisis," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 67(232), pages 105-126, January –.
    7. Roberto Fernández Llera & María A. García Valiñas, 2010. "Efficiency and elusion: both sides of public enterprises in Spain," Working Papers 2010/5, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
    8. Matthias Bank & Alexander Kupfer & Rupert Sendlhofer, 2011. "Performance-sensitive government bonds - A new proposal for sustainable sovereign debt management," Working Papers 2011-24, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    9. repec:prg:jnlpep:v:preprint:id:662:p:1-20 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Mara, Eugenia-Ramona, 2012. "Determinants of fiscal budget volatility in old versus new EU member states," MPRA Paper 42555, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Lucia Mihóková & Radovan Dráb & Andrea Kralik, 2018. "Assessing the Impact of Tax Evasion on Long-Term Fiscal Imbalance: A Sensitivity Analysis Application," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2018(3), pages 331-350.
    12. Roberto Fernández Llera & María A. García Valiñas, 2013. "The Role of Regional Public Enterprises in Spain: Room for a Shadow Government?," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 205(2), pages 9-31, June.
    13. Roberto Fernández Llera & María A. García Valiñas, 2010. "Efficiency and elusion: both sides of public enterprises in Spain," Working Papers 2010/5, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
    14. Lucia Mihóková & Radovan Dráb & Andrea Kralik, 2019. "Determinants of Short-term Fiscal Imbalance: the Role of Tax Evasion as Fiscal Determinant Within European Countries," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 67(2), pages 515-534.
    15. Gadong Toma Dalyop, 2017. "Determinants of Fiscal Deficit in Conflict-affected States in Africa," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 69-95, January.
    16. Dragan Tevdovski & Petar Jolakoski & Viktor Stojkoski, 2021. "Determinants of budget deficits: Focus on the effects from the COVID-19 crisis," Papers 2105.14959, arXiv.org.
    17. Anwar, Mumtaz & Ahmad, Munazza, 2012. "Political determinants of budget deficit in Pakistan: An empirical investigation," HWWI Research Papers 135, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    18. Antoine Cazals & Pierre Mandon, 2015. "Political Budget Cycles: Manipulation of Leaders or Bias from Research? A Meta-Regression Analysis," Working Papers halshs-01238883, HAL.
    19. Antoine CAZALS & Pierre MANDON, 2016. "Political Budget Cycles: Manipulation from Leaders or Manipulation from Researchers? Evidence from a Meta-Regression Analysis," Working Papers 201609, CERDI.
    20. Antoine Cazals & Pierre Mandon, 2015. "Political Budget Cycles: Manipulation of Leaders or Bias from Research? A Meta-Regression Analysis," CERDI Working papers halshs-01238883, HAL.
    21. Stéphane Goutte & David Guerreiro & Bilel Sanhaji & Sophie Saglio & Julien Chevallier, 2019. "International Financial Markets," Post-Print halshs-02183053, HAL.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal policy; European Monetary Union;

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
    • H87 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - International Fiscal Issues; International Public Goods

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