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Trends in the Sea Ice and Snow Cover Extent: A Fractional Integration Analysis

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  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale
  • Maria Fatima Romero-Rojo
  • Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana

Abstract

This paper analyses monthly data on sea ice cover extent from January 1979 to April 2024 and on snow cover extent from January 1967 to April 2024 for various regions of the world using fractional integration methods. A statistically significant time trend is found when the errors in the regression model are incorrectly assumed to exhibit short memory. However, this evidence vanishes when the errors are allowed instead to follow an I(d) process with d different from zero and thus to be characterised by long memory (a well-known property of most climatological series) – in this case, the time trend becomes insignificant for all series. This implies that previous findings suggesting an irreversible decline in both sea ice and snow cover extent might be misleading because of an incorrect model specification.

Suggested Citation

  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Maria Fatima Romero-Rojo & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana, 2024. "Trends in the Sea Ice and Snow Cover Extent: A Fractional Integration Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 11475, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11475
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Blazsek, Szabolcs & Escribano, Alvaro & Kristof, Erzsebet, 2024. "Global, Arctic, and Antarctic sea ice volume predictions using score-driven threshold climate models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    2. Luis A. Gil-Alana & OlaOluwa S. Yaya, 2021. "Testing fractional unit roots with non-linear smooth break approximations using Fourier functions," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(13-15), pages 2542-2559, November.
    3. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A Gil-Alana & Olaoluwa Simon Yaya, 2022. "Modeling persistence and non-linearities in the US treasury 10-year bond yields," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 42(3), pages 1221-1229.
    4. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    5. Uwe Hassler & Barbara Meller, 2014. "Detecting multiple breaks in long memory the case of U.S. inflation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 653-680, March.
    6. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana, 2024. "A Long-Memory Model for Multiple Cycles with an Application to the US Stock Market," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-12, November.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    sea ice and snow cover extent; trends; fractional integration; long memory;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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