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Energy prices in Europe. Evidence of persistence across markets

Author

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  • Martin-Valmayor, Miguel A.
  • Gil-Alana, Luis A.
  • Infante, Juan

Abstract

This paper deals with the behavior of energy price changes and how their shocks exert an impact on suppliers and consumers in different markets. For this purpose, a fractional integration model is used to evaluate the persistence and mean reversion in prices across the major European markets (Germany, France, Italy, UK, Spain). We compare the results with other major players as the US and Japan, to understand, first, if the European behavior is different, and second, if geopolitical shocks that are affecting this market are expected to be permanent. Empirical results show evidence of mean reversion properties in European prices, though some minor differences arise from market to market that apparently, are not associated with the energy generation strategies followed by each country. Thus, it will likely be expected following the current energy shocks the series will recover due to natural market forces, without the need for additional policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin-Valmayor, Miguel A. & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Infante, Juan, 2023. "Energy prices in Europe. Evidence of persistence across markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:82:y:2023:i:c:s030142072300257x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.103546
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Canepa, Alessandra & Zanetti Chini, Emilio & Alqaralleh, Huthaifa, 2023. "Modelling and Forecasting Energy Market Cycles: A Generalized Smooth Transition Approach," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 202318, University of Turin.
    2. Ergemen, Yunus Emre & Haldrup, Niels & Rodríguez-Caballero, Carlos Vladimir, 2016. "Common long-range dependence in a panel of hourly Nord Pool electricity prices and loads," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 79-96.
    3. Stajić, Ljubiša & Praksová, Renáta & Brkić, Dejan & Praks, Pavel, 2024. "Estimation of global natural gas spot prices using big data and symbolic regression," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    4. Saâdaoui, Foued & Ben Jabeur, Sami, 2023. "Analyzing the influence of geopolitical risks on European power prices using a multiresolution causal neural network," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Energy consumption; Energy prices; Long memory; Fractional integration; Persistence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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