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Structural breaks in international tourism demand: Are they caused by crises or disasters?

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  • Cró, Susana
  • Martins, António Miguel

Abstract

It is recognised that the tourism industry is vulnerable to some form of crises or disaster. However, despite the attention given to the nature and consequences of tourism crises and disasters, there is a gap in the literature regarding the ex-post detection of these events. In this article, we estimate both the number and date of structural breaks in international tourism arrival series for 25 countries and Madeira Island using the Bai and Perron (1998) structural break test. We compare the date of tourism crises and disasters to the dating of these structural breaks. We observe that tourism crises and disasters are largely consistent with the dates of breaks. Therefore, this method allows us to solve a gap in the tourism industry related to the correct allocation of negative shocks in international tourism arrival demand to crisis or disaster phenomena.

Suggested Citation

  • Cró, Susana & Martins, António Miguel, 2017. "Structural breaks in international tourism demand: Are they caused by crises or disasters?," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 3-9.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:touman:v:63:y:2017:i:c:p:3-9
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tourman.2017.05.009
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    18. Ivanova, Maya & Ivanov, Ivan Krasimirov & Ivanov, Stanislav Hristov, 2020. "Travel behaviour after the pandemic: the case of Bulgaria," SocArXiv 36rkb, Center for Open Science.
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    22. Rufei Zhang & Haizhen Zhang & Qingzhu Fan & Wang Gao & Xue Luo & Shixiong Yang, 2022. "Partisan Conflict, National Security Policy Uncertainty and Tourism," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-22, August.
    23. Gogonea Rodica-Manuela & Zaharia Radu Serban & Balacescu Aniela, 2019. "Considerations About External Tourist Actions Organized By Travel Agencies From Romania," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 6, pages 6-13, December.
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